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Chapter 13: The Life and Lies of Mirabella Plunkett
 
Mirabella Plunkett
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Post #1: 9th Mar 2018 4:06:56 AM 
Trying to think of one good reason not to bluff that I have a vote switcher from the instagram account right now and I can' think of anything.

I feel like I'm actually in... a good(?) spot right now? Maybe?

But I don't think a bluff does anything other than make people more uncomfortable to stir something up against me.

I approach this round the same way whether I bluff or not, but hopefully with the bluff if things go wrong it will be Pomfrey biting the dust as the target it is safer to go after.
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Mirabella Plunkett
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Post #2: 9th Mar 2018 4:33:55 AM 
Well I have a day off so I will not do this tonight.

The immediate post-vote vibes I'm getting from everyone except Cormac are soooo positive right now. I almost start to wonder if this move would be seen as a betrayal of trust and hurt my chances of being supported by ron at F4 against his own best interests.

Ron just proposed the exact same end-game plan as me so if that is the plan and we can make it work adding extra variables might only cause us to divert from it.
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Post #3: 9th Mar 2018 2:02:52 PM 
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What he says he wants: He came right to me after the vote and proposed the same plan I want to see which is

- F6 Vote out Cormac to get rid of someone who might be dragged to FTC over us.
- F5 We have the option of either sticking with Fred and Pomfrey or flipping to vote with Draco. Assuming Fred loses immunity, we both want to flip and take out Fred since Fred is a favourite to win FIC and wouldn't take both of us to the end. He's not sure if we should target Draco or Pomfrey if Fred wins immunity but I would push for Draco
- F4 if Fred is gone we should be in the middle between Pomfrey and Draco he says and we can pick who to take to the end. I would want to vote out Pomfrey.

Does he really want this? I'm not sure going to FTC with me is his most rational move. But he seems real when he talks about not wanting goats dragged and potentially costing him a ftc spot. He also very genuinely gets along with me and Pomfrey and there are legitimately ORG people who play loyally in end game. He hasn't been the most scheming and conniving player so far so it would be impressive if he's leading me on. HOWEVER, I'm very aware that I've underestimated him every step of the way and that he's actually played quite well at the important moments. AND he does feel comfortable around cormac and Draco so he will likely be approached to do something by cormac.

Can I beat him at FTC? if the jury is very bitter he might be more palatable and his game hasn't been bad. But every move on Rons resume is probably something I can take equal or more credit for and I'm probably better spoken than him.

What do I need to tell him? Ron needs to stay convinced that I'm completely loyal to him. If he thinks we are going to be firmly in the middle at an F5 vote he should go after Cormac here and rest easy knowing that he will end up in everyone's FTC plans.
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Post #4: 9th Mar 2018 5:24:31 PM 
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What she says she wants: She is very worried about Cormac bringing in Draco and Ron to work with him and target her and I ever since I invented that cormac was proposing that. As far as I can tell she's terrified about this round and wants to break up Draco and cormac. Cormac is a big goat so she should be willing to vote him at f6

- F6 Vote out Cormac to get rid of someone who might be dragged to FTC over us.
- F5 She might want to get rid of Draco here as another goat but she seems to be hinting fred may be an option and she may think fred won't take her to the end after a FIC win.
- F4 No promises made here. She says she hates undeserving finalists but when push comes to shove I need to expect she targets me here if given a chance.

Does she really want this? Pomfrey should be the happiest of anyone here to end up at FTC alongside me. She has a good resume and good relationships with jury and she's terrified she will be targeted for that reason. I'm quite confident she thinks F6 is too early to try to take out threats because that would force her to go on an immunity run and that's not her specialty.

Can I beat her at FTC? I would like a chance to try. Other than me she has the best resume here and she's personally liked by the jury. She's also articulate. I think she thinks she can beat me but I only need 5 votes and I feel good about Newt, Maxime, Lockhart and Ron. It would be an entertaining FTC

What do I need to tell her? I shouldn't push too hard because she's already buying into it, but I need to keep her suspicious of cormac and pushing for a vote on him. She needs to be hanging onto me as a life preserver and terrified of everyone else's end game motives. If she pushes for Draco instead of Cormac as the F6 vote I need to figure out how much I can push back without her being suspicious of me.
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Post #5: 9th Mar 2018 7:00:35 PM 
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What he says he wants: He's been pretty absent finishing up schoolwork before reading week starts tonight. Which explains why he is so pro status quo right now. He may turn up the scrambling tomorrow when he has free time. Right now he says he wants to keep us together as a group of 4 and likes this group.

- F6 Vote out Cormac to get rid of someone who might be dragged to FTC over us.
- F5 Vote out Draco to ensure out group is the final 4
- F4 Not discussed but it's obviously a presumption he would want me or Pomfrey out as a jury threat.

Does he really want this? Very hard to tell. Fred is a genuinely good player when present and must be confident in his challenge skills as he gets nearer to the finals. An easy cormac vote could suit him if he isn't immune as it gets him one step closer and increases the chances of others taking him to the end. But he probably doesn't think he can beat Pomfrey who made the same moves as him while being more active. And he probably sees me as both a jury and challenge threat to him. With immunity fred could go after me as soon as this vote and stopping that is the best reason to bluff a vote switcher this round. But with him not being very active right now I don't know if he has built enough of a relationship to make a move involving Draco. And with him not being very active it's hard to judge how committed he is to our group of four - He may simply think sticking to the group is an easy way to guarantee FTC, voting out pomfrey or me at f4.

Can I beat him at FTC? I'd feel very comfortable about having at least 4 votes against him and I would like to think my resume and ability to explain myself could win me one more. He wouldn't be an undeserving winner but I like how I look beside him.

What do I need to tell him? I gotta tell him and Pomfrey that I don't have any plans to vote him out this round and am loyal to our 4. But he's an obstacle to me, especially at FIC and I would love to get him out of the equation in fifth place.
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Post #6: 9th Mar 2018 7:33:38 PM 
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What he says he wants: As always, Draco says nearly nothing of import. This has isolated him and made no one trust him all game long but he hasn't changed his ways and he still absorbs everything he's told without really offering any information in return. But he seems to like to talk to me and seems open to working with Ron and I at F5.

- F6 Vote out Cormac to get to an F5 where me Draco and Ron are in a majority.
- F5 Vote out one of Pomfrey/Fred
- F4 Vote out the other of Pomfrey/Fred

Does he really want this? Draco is kind of in a shitty position. He's got to be wondering if there is a FTC combo that he can win in and it worries me that he may feel he needs cormac to have a chance. Alternatively, he may feel isolated and desperate to last long enough to make it to FTC. If he let's go of cormac here would he rather side at F5 with Ron and I or with Fred and Pomfrey? My money is on Ron and I because a bitter jury could give him a chance but if he's ambitious he may try to get rid of me and hope he can dump Pomfrey at F4 to have a Fred/Draco/Ron FTC. That's probably his smartest move. UGH.

Can I beat him at FTC? Yeah. He probably couldn't even beat cormac in a jury vote right now.

What do I need to tell him? I need him to feel in the loop. Thankfully Lily tried to put votes on him when she was headed out the door and Ron and I had a chance to both leak that to Draco to build trust. He needs to feel confident that both Ron and I are all in on making it to FTC with him.
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Mirabella Plunkett
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Post #7: 9th Mar 2018 10:03:23 PM 
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What he says he wants: According to Pomfrey and Ron, last round cormac wanted to vote for Lily or Me. So this round let's just assume it's me.

- F6 Vote out Mirabella to get to an F5 where he is a goat
- F5 Vote out Pomfrey to get to an F4 where he is a goat
- F4 Be a goat

Does he really want this? Yeah. Most likely he's targeting me cause we've never really talked. And that's fair.

Can I beat him at FTC? Yeah. He probably couldn't even beat draco in a jury vote right now.

What do I need to tell him? Probably nothing. Talking to much to him would give him material to go after me and make me look sketchy. Plus it would give the impression that I'm trying to jury manage. My aloofness towards Cormac Lily and Amos in the last three rounds is the best ammunition I have to convince people I'm notching jury management and gonna flop an FTC against a bitter jury. He has absolutely no reason to want to take me to the end so trying to work with him has more disadvantages than benefits.
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Mirabella Plunkett
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Post #8: 10th Mar 2018 5:24:23 AM 
Also Lily said the alliance trying to boot me was called "the revengers" which is petty and unoriginal.

How tf did anyone like snape?
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Mirabella Plunkett
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Post #9: 10th Mar 2018 4:23:25 PM 
I've never gone so back and forth on a decision like I am now on bluffing an item.

I've has a good read on the cast all season and all signs are pointing to it being unnecessary and it may betray trust or make me look like I'm adding resume stuff that makes me more dangerous than pomfrey.

Gonna wait until immunity results and probably stay quiet if I win immunity
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Mirabella Plunkett
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Post #10: 11th Mar 2018 1:28:54 AM 
Host Cedric @ 24/2/2018 17:16
jk you find...

Spoiler+


Post Edited by Mirabella Plunkett @ 11th Mar 2018 1:29:44 AM
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Mirabella Plunkett
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Post #11: 11th Mar 2018 2:28:57 AM 
Wow im not enjoying consistently coming second in challenges
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Mirabella Plunkett
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Post #12: 11th Mar 2018 6:03:37 AM 
It's probably completely unnecessary, but I'm bluffing a vote switcher anyway. I think it's gonna make everyone extremely uncomfortable considering voting me at F6 or F5.

I'm not crazy worried about the F6 vote in particular but it would suck to go home at this point knowing I left one more tool unused in the toolkit.
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Post #13: 11th Mar 2018 11:09:55 PM 
Pom and ron are now pushing to vote out Fred it seems and they feel obliged to come to me to make it happen because they think I'm holding a vote switcher.

I'm really not eager for that. Yes he is the biggest challenge threat, but I feel that this is an opening for both Pom and Ron to pursue an F3 with Draco and Cormac.

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Mirabella Plunkett
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Post #14: 11th Mar 2018 11:11:24 PM 
Ron has asked me about 12 times when this vote switcher expires
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Mirabella Plunkett
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Post #15: 11th Mar 2018 11:24:36 PM 
Well this is the short-term benefit of bluffing a vote switcher.
Gonna be a dramatic one hour round after this though. Didn't want to be forced to so openly lie to ron.

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