Okay this fallout has been a mess, I think I've figured out everything that has gone down but we'll see:
So basically, Alejandro still hasn't told Chris that Jessaca is really the one who has the idol, not Danny. Chris is wanting to kind of use that information as leverage, so Chris has gone and told Sarena & Matthew about the idol clues and that Danny has the idol behind Alejandro's back.
Chris' plan for this round is to push for a huge vote on Danny (hence why he told Sarena & Matthew), and get Danny to flush his idol but have Bryce, Abby, Naomi & himself secretly vote Lexi. Essentially pulling a 4-3-3 or something. But he's doubting whether he can pull it off or not.
Danny went on call with Abby and decided to tell Abby about the "Crush Orange" alliance between Alejandro, Anders, Chris, Jessaca & Danny. Abby was pissed off that Alejandro, Anders & Chris had this alliance behind her back, and in turn told Danny that there was an alliance with Alejandro, Anders, Chris, Bryce & herself. Danny of course didn't keep this a secret lmao.
Bryce found out and was a little "... you guys didn't tell me you had this group um" but I didn't get a good read on how he felt with that.
Furthermore, Chris, Alejandro & Bryce have solidified an alliance together. It's called the Insurrection, and no idea how strong it is at the moment. Apparently Alejandro was talking to Jessaca and they're thinking of expanding this alliance out to include Jessaca & Sarena.
Chris then decided to go to Sarena and fill her in on the Crush Orange & Abby/Bryce alliances just to get out in front of the bullet because he knew Danny would've eventually told her anyway (although Alejandro already told Jessaca everything ages ago lol). No update on how Sarena is going to react to knowing that Bryce was officially in an alliance without her, but considering she was already questioning him, I don't think this was great for his game.
I asked Chris if he had spoken to Jess about the alliance and he said no, because I told him I wanted to make sure we didn't sound like we had planned it before. So, since he said no I went ahead and had the conversation with Jess, who told me Chris had already had the conversation. I do not understand why Chris is being messy all of a sudden for no reason.
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I'm assuming the "alliance" he's referring to is the Bryce, Chris, Alejandro, Sarena, Jessaca one?
Abby, 9:06 PM
I'm fixing shit with Danny, I'm gonna talk to him as soon as he's available to do so
I might out my alliance with Bryce
I'm trying to get Danny/Jess/Lexi/Matt/Sarena/me/Bryce to all vote the same next round and vote out Alex
which seems feasible.
I'm hoping to band together the people who feel like they're in trouble right now (me, Danny, Matt) to get out someone else and keep our names out of things.
my number one priority has always been Bryce
and always will be Bryce
and I don't know after that.
I thought Naomi and Chris, but Chris is being snakey apparently.
or maybe it's Bryce but I doubt it just by the fact Bryce has barely been online
and the fact that Bryce told me he would always have my back.
THIS IS TOO STRESSFUL
---
Abby is cracking under pressure right now, but I think the first taste of the game lead her to make her first mistakes in an online game format and she's frantically trying to undo these mistakes, only to create more issues for herself. I think her transparency is great, but she needs to put chips in a basket and ride it out at this point and I hope she can see this as I'd love to see her come back from this. She's smart and has game, and I think if time is granted she can overcome these errors.
Abby, 9:06 PM
I'm fixing shit with Danny, I'm gonna talk to him as soon as he's available to do so
I might out my alliance with Bryce
I'm trying to get Danny/Jess/Lexi/Matt/Sarena/me/Bryce to all vote the same next round and vote out Alex
which seems feasible.
I'm hoping to band together the people who feel like they're in trouble right now (me, Danny, Matt) to get out someone else and keep our names out of things.
my number one priority has always been Bryce
and always will be Bryce
and I don't know after that.
I thought Naomi and Chris, but Chris is being snakey apparently.
or maybe it's Bryce but I doubt it just by the fact Bryce has barely been online
and the fact that Bryce told me he would always have my back.
THIS IS TOO STRESSFUL
---
Abby is cracking under pressure right now, but I think the first taste of the game lead her to make her first mistakes in an online game format and she's frantically trying to undo these mistakes, only to create more issues for herself. I think her transparency is great, but she needs to put chips in a basket and ride it out at this point and I hope she can see this as I'd love to see her come back from this. She's smart and has game, and I think if time is granted she can overcome these errors.
Alejandro feels like a totally out of left field target for Abby, shocked that he's the one she has her sights on.
This feels eerily similar to me in this exact round last season though so I totally sympathise. Pullin' for you Abby. </3 Last season I just kind of freaked out once I found out that my double dealings had been brought to light right after the Kilby boot and I tried to scramble a plan with all the people I felt were vulnerable exaaaactly like Abby is doing now.
It's just so near impossible to play hard in a time like Abby is in now because you're operating with like 25% of all the information in the game and you're just bound to trip over some misinformation eventually. And even though I think Abby is actually kind of bang on with Danny, Matthew and herself being vulnerable; I don't think it's possible to convince them to just drop all their existing connections and alliances to go all in with you on a plan like this. I feel like Abby's only real play that could work would be to throw Danny under the bus? Either that or sit tight and hope Bryce & Chris come up with a plan to bail you out.
X:1 Y:10
X:0 Y:6
Add all the X coordinates together. That is your actual X coordinate. Add all the Y coordinates together, that is your actual Y coordinate.
X: 7 Y:1
So I'm late but that tribal council was amazing. The irony of it being Sarena and Anders was even better. In regards to Anders little outburst...I have to say I actually felt terrible for him. Yes it was extra. Yes it was aggressive. However I appreciate how much he loved and respected the game and was upset about getting voted out because of it. I also don't necessarily feel bad for Jessaca because she DID fuck him over and out of the game. I would have expected the same behavior towards me if I did what she did. The only thing I don't agree with is Anders threatening his jury vote. I'm hopeful as he sits in jury he'll get over it and respect it for what it was...a game move and potentially a very good one at that. Although I have to wonder if this will put Jessaca in a more threatening light and force people to consider cutting her earlier.
In other news I'm bored with Matt and Sarena and want them to go sooner rather than later. They've had an incredibly easy journey the first half and without some good twists and luck both were in serious danger at the first tribal council they were both attending.
Finally...I need Naomi or Chris to win, but right now Bryce screams winner to me.
Oh oh my god I can't believe I forgot to mention this on the recap but I have to talk about the thing that bugged me so much this episode.
Alejandro voting for Naomi to see whether or not she has the Dying Wish Immunity. Which he was apparently considering doing even before the whole defaulting Anders thing happened.
... Sam states who has the immunites before the votes are read!!!!! Voting for her does nothing!!!!!
I haven't watched any confessionals but I think it is interesting that Abby is wanting to go after Alex, I feel like Bryce is really sitting in a nice spot, basically the middle of everything
As I middle around on a Thursday night, I figure "what the heck, why not add some thoughts on the game" -- it's been a hot minute since i've gone through person-by-person. And I feel like there's no better way to discuss each person left in the game than by ranking them in order from highest to lowest winner equity, right at this moment at the final 10.
The Upper Echelon--
1. Bryce: Bryce's game is interesting b/c he hasn't attended a legit tribal council where he's not immune, and thus he really doesn't have any sort of ~resumé~. Regardless, I feel like at this moment Bryce is truly in the optimal spot to win the game. In part it's because he's somewhat positioned between various groups--Bryce is just that guy you need as a reliable and trustworthy number in your alliance in this merge. Not to mention that perception wise I think people just see Bryce as a really nice guy, who's easy to get along with and work with...which is perhaps gonna cause people to overlook Bryce as a strategist, and a savvy one at that.
Bryce would really need to tank his game or get idol'd out to not make it to at least the final 4. And I think if he makes FTC, he would do great at telling his story.
2. Chris: Perhaps controversial that Chris isn't in the number 1 spot for winner equity, but hear me out. There's no doubt that Chris has been playing a tremendous game, and I think his odds to win are still super solid. I suppose I'm just concerned that he might be trying to turn into a power player and build a ~resumé~.
In addition to that, I feel like Chris is almost TOO GOOD socially. By that I mean, he has so many good connections that on his route to the end he's going to have to the slit throats of people who really admire him a lot. Befriending people, voting them out, then asking for their jury vote is extremely difficult. Not to say Chris can't do it, I totally think he can...overall I think I"m just starting to see some more road blocks develop for Chris' game....more road blocks than what currently exists for Bryce.
3. Jessfather: I won't say too much on Jess here, b/c given the power play she just made she's getting a lot of VL content and i don't want to just reiterate what's been said.
At any rate, I think it's curious that Jess is seemingly not being seen as a monster threat by people. Rather, I think Jess STILL has almost everyone eating out of the palm of her hand. I swear, every time I watch a confessional someone is talking about how they vibe with Jess and want to be her ally. And yet, would people really let Jess get to the end? Can Jess mist the fuck out of some people and get them to take her way too close to the end?
I actually think Jess might be more well suited for the #2 winner equity spot, b/c I think she's slightly more skilled of a player than Chris and has proven her capability of convincing people to do what SHE wants. Like, I think Jess is truly the one person in this game that can convince people to act outside of their best interest to help her game out...I guess we'll see.
A FIGHTING SHOT ECHELON--
4. Naomi--I think Naomi has a lot of work to do, given that she hadn't met several people in this game coming into the merge. Even so, I just don't know if I see a scenario where Naomi gets the boot. Like who is going to target Naomi at this point? And players like Chris and Alejandro are going to simultaneously shield and bring Naomi along for the ride.
Naomi hasn't shown herself to be some incredible strategist in this season, but her social game is killer...and that's exactly why she can win. Get to the end and be the most likeable person is her very realistic blueprint to win.
5. Alex--I can see an Alex win tbh. He's just such a genuine good guy, that if he makes it to FTC he most certainly should have a shot at rallying votes.
I've been trying to put my finger on what it is about Alex's game that worries me, but I just can't totally explain it. Is it being too paranoid? Is it overplaying/overthnking things? Maybe.
Again though, as people have said, Alex seems to want to work with people he probably can't beat in the end...which I think is good for his longevity, but problematic b/c it probably means people like Chris and Jess have a better shot at making FTC.
6. Sarena--Sarena can definitely still win, especially given that she's sort of linked with Jess now and is probably in the game as long as jess is. So Sarena should make it reasonably far at this point, but I think she has some definitely work to do to garner the win. She's soooo soo likeable and easy to get along with, so I think she has the social chops to make FTC and have enough people in her corner. Maybe Sarena could sit next to Matt at FTC? That sounds ideal.
MAYBE?--
7. Abby--I think it's well documented that Abby is really not playing too well at the moment, and her route to the end is very very murky. However, if she somehow makes the end, then I think Abby potentially has a fair amount of friends on that jury...
8. Lexi--Perhaps Lexi should actually be a bit higher. I might be low-balling her chances, b/c Lexi definitely has a great shot at making FTC...plus Lexi has shown brilliant flashes of gameplay, so I know she's capable of creating some sort of ~resumé~.
Lexi really just needs to commit 100% to the idea of winning this game--going out and building relationships with the people she doesn't really know yet.
9. Danny--I don't think Danny is drawing completely dead quite yet, but the road to the win is uphill both ways. I just can't bring myself to picturing the Danny win in Endure 7; then again, most people said the same about Mike last season and he almost yada yada yada'd himself to the win...and Danny is definitely more involved in this season's interworkings than Mike way.
I actually think I'd be more hyped for a Danny win than anyone else left...like I'm TRULY rooting for it to happen b/c I'm a Danny fan...but it just kinda seems like so many people are against him and have a negative view of him as a player. Danny would really need to turn the ship around.
10. Matt--Uhhh. Full disclosure: I haven't seen a Matt confessional in a while. I do like Matt...but if anyone is drawing dead at this point, it might be him. Just not really meshing too well with the group, despite having a decent read on things and having his finger relatively on the pulse of what's happening.
Alright, I'm definitely not re-reading this before posting...so, apologies for poor spelling/grammar/commentary and so on. Feel free to totally disagree with my assessment too! Kbye.
Post Edited by Nick DeMott @ 30th Nov 2018 1:17:58 AM
Oh oh my god I can't believe I forgot to mention this on the recap but I have to talk about the thing that bugged me so much this episode.
Alejandro voting for Naomi to see whether or not she has the Dying Wish Immunity. Which he was apparently considering doing even before the whole defaulting Anders thing happened.
... Sam states who has the immunites before the votes are read!!!!! Voting for her does nothing!!!!!
I don’t think he would have known that though, as he had only attended three one tribal before this and no one had a dying wish at that point. I could be wrong though
I find it interesting in the polarity of Abby and Danny's games:
To me, both of them are two very boisterous characters and talk more than they should for their benefit, but their approaches to being seen untrustworthy are the complete opposite:
Danny lies about everything to everyone with sprinkles of truth interspersed.
Abby cannot be upfront about everything and sprinkles in white lies here and there.
It's funny how both are in very similar situations for very opposite reasons. I think Abby's brutal honesty has really put Bryce in a terrible situation. Honestly I have NO clue who goes this round, but I feel like odds are high that it's Abby despite her best efforts.
Also s/o Sarena, her confessionals always have a great one-liner.
