The other thing I'm getting from this round is Sarena's position has improved drastically. I also think she likened Abby's situation very well to the situation regarding the california wild fires; Abby started the fire, pretty much for fun -- and now it's burning out of control and she's paying the consequences. I still have slivers of hope, but I think Abby's best bet is winning immunities and hoping the game falls around her right now. I love her so much as a character, but I think her shots at any victory are over. Something interesting to mention is this is not Abby's wheelhouse; she doesn't watch survivor or strategic reality tv and her only entry to this was 2009 Tengaged... she's being herself in a game where she should be 6/10 herself instead of 11/10. She went to Kait for advice to understand the game, then she went to Anders, and now she's left without bearings. Her undoing is her fault, but really it's her inexperience compared to everyone else that's showing through and if she were to want to play again I know if she reeled it in she'd be a huge threat.
Yeah I actually do love Abby's plan and like, fuck yeah I have so much support for anybody who wants to rally the people in peril and take out a top dog! It's just a bit of a mess now because she's banking on taking out Chris or Alejandro, but a key part of that is doing it with Bryce -- who has a solid three person alliance with them.
She's counting Sarena & Matthew as numbers potentially too, but they unfortunately didn't accept her apology in the slightest. So that's a bit of an issue there. I don't foresee Jessaca wanting to cut Alejandro either, so it's an awkward spot.
I do think she has a decent shot at having herself, Lexi, Danny & Naomi(provided it's Alejandro and not Chris) -- which I suppose is 4/10. Bryce I have no idea where he stands, I wouldn't think he'd be for this but he also wrote in his confessional that he suspects Alejandro or Chris are going so maybe he is on board with this after all?
I'm mostly just praying to baby Jesus that Abby wins Immunity this round. I'm not ready to lose her.
I tried to make an alliance graph and all it did was make me more confused theres probably inaccuracies but there was too much to keep track of pls dont judge
edit: since making this i've learned that matthew and danny are close??? who knew. basically just draw a scribble over a picture of all the players and that's the dynamics
I guess I'm just trying to figure out who is the target here
Danny and Abby will probs push for you to go
But I think Lexi is probably the easy vote for us here
Especially if Danny is as nervous as he seems
By the way, Danny exposed the idol thing to me. I'm still very confused on the time line and how far people got
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So so far names that have been thrown out this round regarding a boot are: Abby, Alex, Chris, and Lexi.
Matthew getting slightly emotional over finding out that Bryce was willing to vote him out through the whole post-swap (at like 13:00-ish in his newest confessional) is great content. What a fun round this has been so far and I'm actually hyped to see what this relationship turns into.
Interestingly enough while Sarena scoffed at the idea of working with Abby... Matthew said he'd consider doing it? Kind of? Matthew really wants Alejandro/Chris out which makes things a lot more interesting.
This vote is really complicated and it feels like every single person has a different combination of people they want to work with and a different ideal target. Abby is the name that's up there currently, but there's a chance it could flip to Alejandro. I'm really hoping Abby wins immunity to spice this round up even more.
Also safe to say that Chris & Alejandro's plan (although I think Alejandro is taking the reigns on this) to align with Jessaca, Matthew & Sarena has been a total bust. They just spent four cycles prepared to vote out Matthew or Sarena and neither have forgotten that and are so confused as to why Alejandro & Chris have suddenly flipped their opinion and think they can just lay down an alliance.
So to paint the picture right now, there's 3 prominent chats popping up consistently:
The Tea: Abby, Matt, Sarena
The Church of Wump: Alex, Bryce, Chris, Jess, Matt, Sarena
The Insurrection: Bryce, Chris, Alex
(to a lesser extent tonight) The I Don't Know Alliance: Danny, Lexi, Jess
I'm sure there's a ton of one-on-ones happening but looking at the chats it's telling that Naomi is completely out of the loop?
I think Naomi just thrives moreso in smaller tribes. If she can skate by a few votes and make it to the Final 6 or so I think she can get back to her dominant ways.
Also I adore Danny but dang it! We were sooooo close to an Abby immunity win I’m crying.
Lexi & Jessaca calling about the vote. I was thinking that Alejandro might be the alternate option to booting Abby but here Jessaca & Lexi are discussing Chris leaving instead. Chris going here would be tragic and I hope something flips. Chris is one of the only people in the game who I think has vocalised what a threat Jessaca is so I think he brings a lot if he lasts.
On the bright side I'd get to be a placement twin with Chris.
Watching Sarena's confessional. Somehow she still wants to work with Bryce? He must be doing a great job of damage control because Sarena is definitely not the type to go crawling back to someone after they just screwed her over essentially. Wow I have to admit that I'm shocked by this
naomi has zero winner equity we overrate her a lot tbh. she's so screwed.
I'm not sure I agree with this tbh, although admittedly I've been a Naomi stan since the early weeks of the game-- but people said this about Mike a lot last season and he came within one vote of winning. Naomi being a little more under the radar right now i think helps keep the target off her back? Which it can't be on this week anyway thanks to dying wish. Someone's gonna need her vote to get the person they want out and cut some deals.
Anyway, I'm so distraught over the idea that Chris could leave at this point that I really can't continue with this post.
