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Episode 13: "I Feel Like I Know Better"
 
Tyler Poirier
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Post #16: 13th Jun 2018 6:18:58 PM 
To be fair to Alex, he's missing the current stuff due to a family emergency, I don't want to discredit him by saying he's just not around for no reason. But to the best of my knowledge this isn't the case for the rounds prior (correct me if wrong but I think he was missing earlier rounds bc of work). I get his reluctance to quit from the perspective of maintaining pride of making the jury phase, but it's unfortunate that it's having a negative effect on the game. It would be in his best interest to quit and deal with the family emergency since it is very much impacting his ability to play the game.
 
   
Michael Vicario
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Post #17: 13th Jun 2018 8:21:33 PM 
Yeah its definitely a tough situation that Alex is in. Obviously real life comes first and we want what's best for him.
 
   
Ashlee Smith
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Post #18: 13th Jun 2018 8:28:57 PM 
Yeah I agree with everything Tyler just said
 
   
Michael Vicario
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Post #19: 13th Jun 2018 9:56:09 PM 
Jenn wins double immunity this round and has given immunity to Mike. This has to be the end of Jay I'd think. Jenn was really his only hope to stay this round because there's no way Joey was going to keep him.
 
   
Michael Vicario
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Post #20: 13th Jun 2018 9:58:31 PM 
My dreams of Joey and Jenn both making the end get better and better every round.
 
   
Tyler Poirier
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Post #21: 14th Jun 2018 12:25:45 AM 
Joey is putting his work in with Jenn right now, trying to rack her mind about what they want to do moving forward. Jenn is definitely feeling the pressure because she's pissing someone off regardless of where she votes, Joey is taking her through all of the options they have. I'm very impressed with Joey tonight!
 
   
Tyler Poirier
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Post #22: 14th Jun 2018 12:26:26 AM 
Although they're talking about targeting Harrison soon and I'm not about that life
 
   
Tyler Poirier
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Post #23: 14th Jun 2018 2:19:18 AM 
Jay: "soccer jerseys are swaggy"
Jenn: "... please never say that again"
 
   
Michael Vicario
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Post #24: 14th Jun 2018 5:08:22 AM 
Jenn says she doesn't know if she can actually cut Jay. Come on Jenn.
 
   
Ashlee Smith
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Post #25: 14th Jun 2018 1:43:40 PM 
I think not cutting Jay here will cost Jenn the game. Because then he'll still have Mike and Alex both of whom have said they'd go to rocks for that group.
 
   
Nick DeMott
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Post #26: 14th Jun 2018 2:04:45 PM 
If I'm Jenn/Joey, I think my push here is to vote Mike or Alex out...I definitely think they're right to say one of those three--Jay/Mike/Alex--MUST go this round, but Jenn/Joey flipping back and forth together (and just given the games they've played) should put a target on them in the coming rounds--especially if Jay is taken out. If Jay goes, I don't see how Jenn/Joey (whichever doesn't win f6 immunity) doesn't leave. I just don't see how they both survive f6 without Jay still in...

If Jay leaves this round, Alex/Mike have no incentive to continue to work with Jenn/Joey. Harrison has expressed not trusting Jenn/Joey any more, as they've lied to him a few times and left him in the dark. Plus, Harrison seems very aware that he can't beat Jenn/Joey in the end and that people view him as a goat. So it makes sense that Harrison would go to Mike/Alex and at least try to Jenn/Joey out, which I think would be a really natural and easy conversation to have. Additionally, I'd expect Gibson to also realize that taking Alex/Mike to the end is ideal for his game...versus Jenn/Joey who have played him and played noticeably better games than the rest.

Yes, Jenn needs to be willing to cut Jay, and yes it's risky to leave Jay in another round or two, but I think it's the risk that win either Jenn or Joey the game. You know someone like Mike/Alex is filling a FTC spot at this point...you've got to take one of them out.

 
   
Nick DeMott
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Post #27: 14th Jun 2018 2:34:03 PM 
Some thoughts on each of the final 7:

Alex:
Knowing more about what is going on in his personal life, I truly feel awful for Alex...I wouldn't love it as a viewer, but I'd understand if he chose to bow out. And I don't really see it anymore like it'd be a move to help Jay--I think it's really just a decision that allows him to focus on LIFE.
I don't think Alex can actually win the game at this point, given his activity levels have fluctuated the entire game, but I appreciate (based on his most recent confessional) that he's still trying to consider what moves to make and consider what gets him to the end with a CHANCE to win.
He realizes that he needs to cut Jay soon...and he realizes that he needs to sit in the end with Mike to have a shot at this.
If Jay does leave, his best move is absolutely to get on the same page as Harrison/Gibson/Mike and gun for Joey/Jenn.

Gibby:
Joey said it well in his confessional, where Gibson just overplays constantly. Someone tries to loop him in on some information or work with him on a vote and he immediately runs with that information to someone...and it's just a mess and makes people not trust him. It's just like, Gibby, people talk to each other!!! They compare notes!!
With that said, though, Gibby isn't out of this yet. If Jay leaves, then I'm confident Gibby will realize who his targets need to be in Jenn/Joey. He's a smart player and I'd hope he sees that he needs to sit in the end with Harrison or Mike or Alex...And I kind of expect him to be the ring-leader, perhaps, of bringing together that 4 at final 6...
Not sure if Gibby could win a FIC posting challenge, and therefore I'm not sure anyone would actively take him to the end...He does have a reasonably good underdog story, and he has been wheeling and dealing throughout this merge and has a decent resume...so if he can get to the end he has a shot.

Harrison:
I finally caught up on a Harrison confessional--yay! I'm kinda back on team Harrison at this point. If he can make the moves to take out Jay, then Jenn, then Joey, I'll be sooooo impressed and honestly heads to the end game with a real shot against people he can beat. He's the one person I feel confident will want to go after Jenn/Joey, b/c they are threats...my only trepidation is whether Harrison is able to take the initiate to get on calls with people like Alex and Mike, who I don't think he has the strongest personal bonds with..but would need on his side after this round.
And I agree with the point from Tyler (last round I think) that Harrison might just be suffering from being an unknown commodity in the ORG World. Jenn and Joey have utilized their connections with ORGers and also their reputations to make things happen in this merge game and position themselves in power spots. Harrison, on the other hand, is having to work from square one with a lot of these people he doesn't know. It's difficult.
Regardless, I'm actually really proud of Harrison this season. I don't think he's given up. He's made it super far and could make the end, which is nothing scoff at whether he wins or not.

Jay:
Like Joey astutely pointed out in his confessional this round, I don't think Jay has made all the optimal moves...and it's the reason he finds himself in a tough position to survive and make the end. Yes, he's been vocal and playing this highly visible game, but I don't know that all the moves have been correct. Like yea, I totally appreciate Jay's ability to make things happen and pull off some dope blindsides, and yes he totally deserves to win if he makes the end, but I think his time is running out given who is left in this game...and no one wanting to take him to the end.

Jay's hope is that Jenn and Joey (mostly Jenn) decides to keep him another round and therefore he is in a reasonable position to win out. But it would take some misplaying to allow Jay to reach the end and win.
I'm rooting for Jay to keep scratching and clawing, but I think his time is just about over. He's really brought the JUICE this season and I'm really happy for him making it this far.

Jenn:
To my mind, Jenn has really dominated the game the past few rounds. It's very impressive. She's really flipped the switch and kicked ass during the merge. I think her odds of winning are dwindling a bit, as she's easily the biggest threat to win after Jay...and I even think (ok, i'm speculating) she could beat Jay in a FTC...But her likely getting 4th, 5th, or 6th is a testament to how good of a player she is and just pure respect.
I hope she decides to cut Mike or Alex this round, leaving the Jay target in the game a little longer!! Because I think that's her ticket to the end. Get rid of Mike this round, then maybe Harrison or Gibby next. I don't know...
She's not completely out of it though. For one, she's amazing at these challenges and could win out. Two, her relationship building and likability makes me believe that someone would willingly go to the end with her knowing she would probably win.

Joey:
I loved Joey's insight from this round. It's really peak Joey right now. His perception of game dynamics is so so on-point and he's really thinking ahead and looking at the people left like chess pieces. If Jay goes, what happens next???
If anyone, I get the logic behind taking out Jay here for Joey..Joey has a good relationship with someone like Gibby and maybe Harrison still? If he can do damage control. Joey also knows that he needs to take out Jenn.
Looking at Joey's game right now, it's like he has the arsenal and the road-map to take this game home, and he really just needs to execute. Everyone seems willing to take Joey as far as f4, at least, which makes me think that Joey could win FIC and win the game. Joey is really building momentum, and he's probably my pick to win the game rn.
I haven't been overly impressed with Joey's game, but it's been solid UTR play and I think he's peaking at the right time. My biggest worry is Jay leaving here, then Jenn winning immunity next round. Who leaves? Perhaps Joey, in order to weaken Jenn. That would suck!

Mike:
Maybe it's just me, but from a viewing perspective it seems like Mike's attitude has really changed since the pre-merge. He seems a lot more fun and positive. I think the players in the game appreciate Mike more, and it seems like he's made some genuine friendships along the way.
His perspective on the game and his path to the end is a bit wonky. I don't remember exactly what he said, but i think he wants to take Jay way too far. So his game will benefit immensly if Jay leaves tonight. He'll likely have an ax to grind with Jenn/Joey, for turning on that Final 5 alliance. Ok, that might be it. Mike wants to just go to 5 with that group (Jenn/Joey/Jay/Alex/Himself) which would be foolish...
But anyway, I do think Mike still has a shot--particularly if he's up against Alex and/or Harrison in FTC. Mike has tried and tried in this game, giving it everything he's got. He hasn't been the most strategic or masterful player this season, but he's managed to put himself in a decent non-threatening position.
Again, I'm proud of Mike for lasting this far in his second go-around and I think he has an excellent chance of sitting in FTC, which win or lose is awesome.
 
   
Nick DeMott
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Post #28: 14th Jun 2018 3:34:55 PM 
Oh, I just watched Gibby's last confessional and he said he's willing to sit at the end and lose to Jenn. RIP. Everything I just said is probably a wash. Huge kudos to Jenn if she is able to get people to willingly bring her to the end only to lose. That's impressive stuff. Particularly after Jenn has lied to Gibson a handful of times now.

Post Edited by Nick DeMott @ 14th Jun 2018 3:35:30 PM
 
   
Jen Crowther
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Post #29: 14th Jun 2018 6:23:13 PM 
Nick DeMott @ 14/6/2018 15:34
Oh, I just watched Gibby's last confessional and he said he's willing to sit at the end and lose to Jenn. RIP. Everything I just said is probably a wash. Huge kudos to Jenn if she is able to get people to willingly bring her to the end only to lose. That's impressive stuff. Particularly after Jenn has lied to Gibson a handful of times now.


This is amazing LOL
 
   
Tyler Poirier
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Post #30: 14th Jun 2018 6:46:11 PM 
Jenn/Joey are debating switching the vote to Harrison, which I think might bite them in the butt. This vote is going to be a pivotal one in deciding who has the clearest path to the win.
 
   
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