So who do you guys think is going to be the next jury member?

I have no idea who's working with whom at this point but I feel like this TC they might want to take down a big threat like Misty or Nick but considering they have never received any votes before I wouldn't be surprised if Debbie or Bobby left instead.

Candice @ 1/6/2016 7:25

So who do you guys think is going to be the next jury member? I have no idea who's working with whom at this point but I feel like this TC they might want to take down a big threat like Misty or Nick but considering they have never received any votes before I wouldn't be surprised if Debbie or Bobby left instead.

There might be a men/women split? I had a feeling Misty/Deb/Jenn were close, but also Nick/Jerry/Bobby could be? Less certain about Nick/Bobby, but they did crack a deal back after the swap.

Shane @ 1/6/2016 16:51

Candice @ 1/6/2016 7:25 So who do you guys think is going to be the next jury member? I have no idea who's working with whom at this point but I feel like this TC they might want to take down a big threat like Misty or Nick but considering they have never received any votes before I wouldn't be surprised if Debbie or Bobby left instead. There might be a men/women split? I had a feeling Misty/Deb/Jenn were close, but also Nick/Jerry/Bobby could be? Less certain about Nick/Bobby, but they did crack a deal back after the swap.

I know Jerry's 100% loyal to Nick and that Nick really did not want to vote him out so I'm thinking they're going to vote together and try to get the majority (either Jenn&Misty or Bobby&Debbie) on their side.

Hey guys guess who gets to join you despite being like the third boot.

Excellent double vote play by someone

Either Queen Debbie or King Nick are being dethroned tonight. :(

A few stray thoughts on the Final Five and their positions in the wake of last round. (If only to liven this thread up a bit - come on guys, 6 posts?)

Bobdawg - Bobdawg is actually the person I'd most likely vote for in the Final 5. Dude has made basically no mistakes, and he managed to escape a rather vicious blindside. Plus he's fucking adorable, so that helps. The only thing I can hold against him is that he wouldn't be here if Jenn had used her vote switcher at it's deadline, he wouldn't be here, but honestly with Jenn that's kinda to be expected.

However, moving forward I really don't like his chances. He needs at least one immunity win at the Final 4 to clinch the victory, and I just don't see that happening. Maybe if it was a skill challenge, but honestly I'd put money on Debbie or Jerry there. He's kinda drawing dead as far as getting to FTC is concerned, which sucks, but his jury threat status is WELL known. For that reason I kinda wanna see Misty win the Final 5 immunity challenge, even if it means he's probably headed here next - it's better then a Jerry/Debbie/Jenn Final 3 in my eyes. (Avoiding a Debbie win at all costs, really. Yes, I'm still bitter; but yes, my reasons are also VERY valid.)

Debbie - Debbie royally pissed me off. It'd be one thing if I lost an immunity at 5 or 4, and as a possible jury threat was taken out. Hey, I can't really blame ya' for that - it's not that big a deal. But Debbie admitted she NEEDS a Final 3 of herself/Jerry/Jenn to have a shot at winning, and needs to get in some order myself, Misty, and Bobdawg out. But rather than take a clear shot at Bobdawg, she decides to bet her whole game (and yes it'd be her whole game - if I don't go out in her own words she'd be drawing dead) on a 33% chance that I draw a purple rock.

The fact that it worked out for her is irrelevant in my eyes when she both had to lie EXTENSIVELY to me to make it happen, effectively burning a juror when there were a multitude of ways to get me out in less bloody ways, but also because it was so DUMB. She had clear shots down the line, and needlessly put her entire game at risk because she was "bored." It's one thing when your a troll in the social game and having fun with that - it's another entirely when you carry that over strategically. You can't just be MIA 90% of the time (and ghost me the whole day you plan on voting for me) then make #bigmovez to try and compensate for that. A perspective held the entire game isn't erased so lightly.

Positionally, she's in a decent spot. There's no reason for Jerry and Jenn to boot her at this point, unless they wanna avenge more or something. (How sweet of them!) But nah, realistically she's in the Final 4, and then it comes down to immunity (namely Dawg or Misty winning it) to determine if she can make FTC. Where I'd HOPE she wouldn't have a shot, but glancing at this jury is not really the case.

Jenn - I love Jenn, but she knows she can't win. She's making FTC, and she'll be the kingmaker these next two rounds, especially with her idol. In a her/Debbie/Jerry Final 3 I might give her some consideration if Jerry bombs, but realistically there's no way she's getting the votes she needs. Really not a ton to write here.

Jerry - I'm of two minds when it comes to Jerry. On the one hand, he was my strategic confidante the whole game, the Stephen to my JT, and I think I was one of his main platforms to release his strategic energies. Because, seriously, when we talked he was SUPER into it, even moreso than me, the supposed "Most Strategic." And on a personal level I adore the guy - I picked him first for Chikorita for a reason, after all.

But as for his game, I do see a few holes in comparison to Misty and Bobdawg. He wasn't around a ton compared to some people, and even with me he'd take a while to respond. His strategy of using me as a shield was certainly good in theory, but in practice he was still getting the votes over me because people for whatever reason trusted me more than him. I have a few questions for him when he makes FTC (the only way I see him going out is with an inopportune immunity win at F4 and like, a firemaking tiebreaker - Jenn isn't voting him out, we've had a Final 3 forever and she didn't even really seem to want to vote him this round) regarding when he was planning to cut me, or if he was even planning on doing it. My gut says Final 4, but who knows. I do think Jerry has played a VERY solid game though, and in a Jerry/Jenn/Debbie Final 3 he pretty much has my vote on lock - if Misty or Bobdawg are there, odds are AGAINST me voting him, but certainly not null.

Misty: I'm a bit conflicted on Misty as well. Her plan for this round was basically to take out one of my F3 allies to try and get herself more leverage for next round, and in theory it's one I can get behind. As much as I tried to convince her it was a dumb move, it really wasn't - especially since Jerry and I had been actively targeting her for two rounds, she needed to use immunity as effectively as she could. It ultimately didn't work out because #chemistsgonewild but in theory it leaves me with less options which is a good thing for her, given that in any FTC she has a good shot.

I am a BIT irritated that she wouldn't flip her vote when I voiced my concerns about Debbie not shifting her vote (and I would have probably voted Jerry if Debbie hadn't showed up and lied to me with thirty minutes to deadline - almost forgot about that lil' tidbit) and that a big part of her motivations for flipping were being told I was involved in tipping Shane off in Candice's boot. (For the record Candice, I told Jerry, Bobdawg had Debbie switch her vote last second not knowing an idol would be played "just in case," and Jerry did the actual tipping off - a fourway effort, really.) But I don't REALLY blame her for this, and she'd be a great winner in my eyes.

Issue with that happening, of course, is that she pretty much needs to win two immunities to get there. Even if Dawg isn't immune at F5, if Misty isn't I can't see Jerry letting her comp threat-ness slip by after targeting her for two rounds, and she'll likely join us. Good news is, there's a VERY good shot she can do that - I'm cheering for her.

OK, that turned out MUCH MUCH longer than I'd planned, but figured I'd add my input to the jury, and see where y'alls heads were at as well. LETS DISCUSS THINGS WOOT!

^^I knew you were working with Jerry the moment you kept refusing to vote him out that one TC! And what the hell happened during my boot round anyway? I swear that was the only time I thought there's no way I'm getting voted out, did you flip on our alliance? Why me?

And so I know you don't have to agree with her decision but I love how Debbie took a risk! With you and Misty being the strongest physical players by far - I feel like it's the only way she has a chance of winning immunity for herself and if she does make it to the very end I could see myself giving her a vote.

Candice @ 4/6/2016 11:03

^^I knew you were working with Jerry the moment you kept refusing to vote him out that one TC! And what the hell happened during my boot round anyway? I swear that was the only time I thought there's no way I'm getting voted out, did you flip on our alliance? Why me? And so I know you don't have to agree with her decision but I love how Debbie took a risk! With you and Misty being the strongest physical players by far - I feel like it's the only way she has a chance of winning immunity for herself and if she does make it to the very end I could see myself giving her a vote.

Uhh basically it came down to me wanting you out because I knew Misty was prioritizing you over me, and had your vote more locked up than me. And if I was proceeding with a F3 of Jerry and Jenn, that would impede things. Plus you got REALLY upset when we didn't want to go your way, telling me to vote you and things of that like, and I didn't want that kind of volatility around cuz I couldn't predict it. As for how it actually happened, I'm pretty sure I detailed that.

And I get Debbie taking a risk being exciting, but it's very difficult for me to rationalize it from a strategic perspective. Also she doesn't compete in half the comps anyway - she's not winning any immunities. MAYBE this one, but this one is basically a crapshoot anyway.

^^Yeah sorry for that I was seriously sooo paranoid and crazy during Tina's elimination round - but I really felt like you were going to choose Jerry over the three of us and then you wanted Shane out the following round and that pretty much confirmed everything in my mind. :P Why didn't you vote for Misty though? I would have never won another immunity challenge, I would have gotten barely any votes had I made it to the Finale. Not mad at you, just wondering.

And looking back I think it's awesome how Debbie didn't need any necklaces to make it this far, her and Bobby survived the most TCs, they survived the whole 6 vs. 2 Tribes divided thing and I'm really impressed even though as you said it wasn't the safest move from Debbie's side.

The whole reason I targeted you was because you were a goat - I felt fairly decent about my jury chances against anyone, so I was just trying to keep people I felt were deeply loyal to me or would shield me in some way.

As for Debbie, I'm fine agreeing to disagree. I just can't reward someone who's had practically no social or strategic game for 90% of the game.

^^I think you might've overestimated your chances!

And I don't feel like Debbie not telling you anything about her strategy doesn't make her worthy of winning.

It isn't that Debbie didn't tell me anything about her strategy - I was involved in multiple alliances with Debbie. It's that she played passively and was barely around socially to a similar extent as Jenn - and when I did get a chance to talk to her, she'd go hours between responses. For a large portion of the game, she wasn't invested, and when she did decide to be around, she (in my opinion) made a really bad move from a game theory perspective.

However, every juror can vote the way they want. Debbie just hasn't played a game I favor - if the jury likes her game, then that's that, no?

Debbie

well we all win against Jenn, we all know that including her.

I don't get the Jenn hate. My vote's leaning towards her?