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The Eighth Day of Christms
 
Helios Garabandia
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Post #1: 7th Jan 2018 12:13 AM 
Herm @ 7/1/2018 0:05
Would Maddie's action last night count, even if she was killed, since she technically roleblock/protect her targets.

Depends on host, really. I'd allow it, but I don't know if these hosties will.
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Helios Garabandia
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Post #2: 7th Jan 2018 12:25 AM 
Spin @ 7/1/2018 0:00
WIth only 2 kill attempts, is it possible all the kids are dead now? Or are we looking at a even-night Vig?

VERY interested about there only being two kills. A few possibilities:

1) Two killers went after Maddie or Farlig
2) Maddie, as her final action, blocked the third kill
3) Someone no-killed
4) There were only 4 Kids Table, and so, that faction is done
5) Someone has an action we don't know about yet
6) Something I'm not thinking about yet!
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Helios Garabandia
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Post #3: 7th Jan 2018 12:29 AM 
im317 @ 7/1/2018 0:27
Helios why do you not like even nights?

Even days, not even nights. And I think if you take a look and see, you might pick up on it.
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Helios Garabandia
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Post #4: 7th Jan 2018 11:29 AM 
I've been trying to figure out if the kills line up for there to have been two faction kills, SK Sock, and a Vig. We've had a consistent three kills all game, which is why I thought SKIT over Vig.
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Helios Garabandia
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Post #5: 7th Jan 2018 11:55 AM 
Primate @ 7/1/2018 11:53
The night I'm survived, he was jailed. For clarity. Mads said so in her message to me. Not that I think that is why he survived.

What night was this?
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Helios Garabandia
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Post #6: 7th Jan 2018 2:31 PM 
Snowflake poker @ 7/1/2018 12:19
Primate @ 7/1/2018 12:12
If you believe a kill on a jailed player would be announced as a survival, Jamie and tt make more sense. It is just tough for me to buy that.


I thought we proved it happens with at least rose? My issue is I don’t see maddie jailing me based on her posts from yesterday but obviously I’m biased.

Rose was jailed? I thought she survived because she was Kids Table GF.
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Post #7: 7th Jan 2018 4:27 PM 
Herm @ 7/1/2018 16:27
They need someone they can lynch in the game, they definitely don't need my role.

But if you're Vengeful, then wouldn't you be able to kill one of them? Not sure how that would be to their advantage...
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Helios Garabandia
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Post #8: 7th Jan 2018 4:36 PM 
Herm @ 7/1/2018 16:31
You guys are great at twisting my words to mean something I'm not saying.

I don't know what scum wants, I assume they didn't know what my role was last day phase.

Not twisting your words, just asking questions based on what you said.
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Helios Garabandia
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Post #9: 7th Jan 2018 4:43 PM 
Do we have votals?
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Helios Garabandia
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Post #10: 7th Jan 2018 5:46 PM 
Primate @ 7/1/2018 17:19
Primate @ 7/1/2018 16:16
And removing one faction would put the other much closer to a win.

So might it be best to keep the kid's table around and force the in laws to use their kill on them.

It's an honest question. I'm looking for thoughts here.

Let's see.

We assume that Kids Table has one left and that In-Laws have two left. We also assume there's some kind of third kill out there (I lean SKIT over Vig based on kill count through the game, but we can debate that). We currently have 9 alive. Based on counts and our assumptions, that means 5-6 Town and 3-4 Scum, depending on where you fall on SKIT v Vig debate.

Worst Case Scenarios:
(worst case scenarios assume all deaths are Town-aligned unless otherwise mentioned)
IF we Lynch Kids Table, then we get two kills tonight, and we start D9 with 6 alive. If our third killer is one of the two that gets killed during Night 8, then we are 100% at MyLo, because we'd be at 4 Town v 2 In-Law. If our third killer is still alive, then we are sorta at MyLo, because we'd be at 2 In-Law v 3/4 Town (v 1 SKIT), and a scum faction has to eliminate all threats to them to win, and a killer counts as a threat.

If we lynch an In-Law today, then we get three kills tonight, and we start D9 with 5. No faction has the ability to win on D9 (it'd be 1 KT v 1 In-Law v 2/3 Town (v 1 SKIT)),and nobody can clinch there, but if worst case scenario happens and we lose a Townie, we could have three MORE kills, leaving one alive at the start of D10.

If we lynch Town today, we get three kills tonight, and we start D9 with 5. Interestingly, even if all the kills were on Town, we aren't at LyLo because we'd be at 1 KT v 2 In-Law v 1/2 Town (v 1 SKIT) and even though In-Laws would have 50% if they both survive D9, there'd still be at least one killer out there that In-Laws would have to deal with it before winning.

Basically, after writing this all up, I feel like In-Laws have more paths to victory if they're both alive, but reducing the number of kills also helps us. Also, if we had a Vig over a SKIT, we're in MUCH better shape, but if we have a SKIT over a Vig, then we have a bit of a problem.

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Helios Garabandia
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Post #11: 7th Jan 2018 6:17 PM 
Spin @ 7/1/2018 17:58
So, in your scenario, you assume 3 kills a night. Where was the 3rd kill last night? Are you assuming maddie jailed the killer? What if they are just absent (i.e. PORL)?

Thinking worst case scenarios in my earlier post, so yeah, I'm assuming we have the same three kills a night we've had basically every night and Maddie blocked someone last night.
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Helios Garabandia
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Post #12: 7th Jan 2018 8:37 PM 
oh boyo votals are tied
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Helios Garabandia
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Post #13: 7th Jan 2018 8:38 PM 
I just thought of something. Lemme see...
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Helios Garabandia
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Post #14: 7th Jan 2018 8:49 PM 
Three times during this Day, 317 referred to Porl as "inactive In-Law" (even referring to it as "the consensus"), and Herm also referred to him as "inactive In-Law". Can someone tell me how a) we know there's an inactive In-Law, and b) when Porl became that consensus?
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