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| I'm no edit expert but Ben and Denise are the only ones for sure out imo, even the Edge returnee (assuming it's Natalie) seems more likely to win than them |
Edgic has Tony as the clear frontrunner.
Ben has had way too much negativity also getting caught blatantly lying by Rob and Tony more recently with the idol.
Denise has no agency in the game and nothing is told from her perspective. A recent episode her only confessional was about the idol and she didn't even really tie it into her gameplay or find it.
Michele had a terrible opening episode with only 1 confessional after almost an hour. She paid all those fire tokens just to give away her 50/50 advantage granted she did get it back. Her story is proving she deserved to win HER season not this season. It's the classic journey edit. She wants to prove she can get to the end. I can't see her getting the jury votes for being so passsive and on the wrong side of the votes so many times unless something crazy happens and she is the catalyst in the finale.
Sarah has the second best odds but she has been undermined constantly. From saying I don't wanna get upset with Tony then screaming at him. Then saying Tony has no social game as he proceeds to get fire tokens from 3 different people to get the disadvantage off of him. She is playing second fiddle to him. She is the sidekick in Cops R Us. Also there was her getting heavy negativity for giving Nick her reward on his birthday.
I believe they are going to firemaking together. That scene where they said tiebreaker just seems like heavy foreshadowing and whoever wins firemaking wins the game.
The EoE returnee has no shot because while this isn't really edgic it's outside of the game many players (Sarah included) have liked anti-EoE tweet and I can't see them voting for someone who didn't play the game the whole time in an ALL WINNERS seasons. Especially since the EoE returnee is heavily favored to be Natalie who was voted out first.
Tony has always had agency, explained his gameplay and decisions very well and has made some big moves. The fact that they let him get this far with 0 votes is crazy. As well as winning 3 immunity challenges. He also has an idol which I feel he will play and guarantee at least F5 and he might find another one if it's put back into play and can be played at F5.
The only way Tony doesn't win is if this is a Rick Devens situation and whoever slays Tony will win. But I don't see it happening. Probst has said this season has an awesome winner and ending. And Parvati said the ending to this season is a Survivor fans wetdream or something to that effect.
Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk. | 
