Oh my god Schrauben you suck! Super scummy...

Last mafia HAS to be one of either Timmah or Curtis. Though now I'm wondering about im317 too...I don't blame him for shooting Schrauben, but at the same time I thought he might have refrained from killing, to avoid putting us in this exact situation. Another mislynch and it could be game over.

Ok, so if im317 is an SK, and we can assume there is at least one Mafia remaining (probably the GF) then town is screwed. Even if we lynch right today, the lucky survivor kills tomorrow night and its game over.

So let's not dwell on that. If im317 is the SK, there is nothing we can do about it, and it's only a theory anyway. Plus if im317 is the vig, he is the only shot we have at winning (or at least drawing) if we mislynch today.

What we can say for certain is that one of me, Timmah or Curtis are scum.

Given I can rule myself out, its between Timmah and Curtis. Though I wouldn't like to say which one...

im317 @ 9/11/2015 13:30

Wikey, sell me on why Curtis is mafia instead of you or Timmah.

Don't you mean sell you on why Curtis or Timmah are mafia instead of me?

I am leaving soon, and will be gone for a few hours.

Here are my thoughts before I go:

The key days to look at imo are the following:

- Day 4: Ari Lynch.

The final train:

Ari (8/9) - Timmah, Curtis, im317, Wikey, Nobert, JC, Schrauben, Canuck, Buffy

Timmah initially said he wanted to hear from im317 to confirm that he had killed Chris before lynching Ari, but in the end he placed the first vote on him before im317 showed. Curtis put the second lynch on Ari for 'pressure'.

You could make a case that either of them were taking the opportunity to easily create a bit of distance between themselves and scum Ari. It should be noted that Curtis unlynched after Ari's fake claim though, whilst Timmah called bullshit immediately.

- Day 5 tied vote.

The final trains:

Jayadamo (2/6) - Herm, Schrauben, Jayadamo, Wikey, Canuck
Curtis (2/6) - Herm, Dylan

Two now confirmed townies lynching Curtis. Two townies lynching confirmed townie Jay, accidentally tying the vote. All three who unlynched Jay are also all confirmed town. It appears there was no effort to save Curtis this day if he is indeed scum. It's hard to read much into that. If he is scum, they might well have decided it wasn't worth the risk trying to save him, or he warned them off.

Timmah wasn't anyhere near this lynch, though I believe he had voiced suspicions of Curtis a few times.

- Day 6 Redster lynch:

Redster (6/6) - Wikey, Timmah, im317, Schrauben, Herm, Curtis

This is probably the most interesting lynch of all. For starters, Timmah was the second to join Redster's train, no hesitance. Given there were several other targets been bandied about and Redster wasn't exactly the clear choice, this makes Timmah look town.

Curtis hammered Redster at a point when the lynch was essentially irreversible. Curtis has claimed to have been unavailable for these periods of the day, which is why his votes tend to come later.

- Yesterday's Herm lynch

Curtis was a staunch defender of Herm, which makes him look good. Timmah did not buy his claim, which is understandable, but given what Herm flipped you can't help but question his motivations. Mafia would want the town BP dead asap. But in fairness to Timmah he has been calling out Herm almost the entire game.

----------------------------------------------

I'm undecided on the two...

As for myself, well for starters I started the lynch on Redster, and was calling him out before that day. I have also tried to steer us away from several bad lynches and generally been a voice of reason (I hope). I also was the first to bring up the mass claim idea yesterday. Timmah and Curtis followed with their claims only after mine.

Since the last scum member is probably going to pull out all the stops to avoid getting lynched, i'll defend myself against any accusations they make in advance, since I may not be around to do so myself. I protested JC's choice of target when he decided to shoot Henry. I have already spoken about this, but once again, I just wanted JC to use the gun wisely, and was pleasantly surprised that he chose correctly. Henry seemed like a random choice, given how its almost impossible to get a read on him.

I also tied the vote accidentally on Day 5, inadvertently preventing Curtis' lynch. This was an honest mistake which we as a whole have already made once already.

Well guys, I gotta go. We need to wait for everybody to have their say before we make a decision. There's no advantage in rushing this day.

People were theorizing that Canuck was responsible for Brian's poisoning with the coal. Given that there is no hidden text in his role flip, we still have to account for that.

I can only think that a Mafia role could account for it. Maybe there is no Godfather. This game has had several surprising features.

Also, the idea that I have been buddying up with Curtis is ridiculous.

I inadvertently saved him Day 5, but my reason for not wanting to lynch him wasn't because I was sure he was town, but because there was better options.

I hate lynching random borderline inactives just because...

Also im317, I don't get why you find it scummy that I wanted to wait for you to show up before lynching Ari. We had no way of knowing if you killed Chris until you showed!

Really don't know who to pick between Curtis and Timmah. I was leaning Curtis earlier, but he is coming across as very sincere and makes some good points about how the last scum would want to try and blend in for the final run in. Timmah tunneling on him makes me wonder if he is throwing caution to the wind as he is so close to victory. I dunno...

All i do know is that I hope im317 is the SK, cause we sure as hell don't deserve to win!

Can we get a count before we end this shit prematurely.

Keep in mind that the mafia is going to be reluctant to hammer. They will want to avoid im317 shooting them at night if they lynch town.

Last mafia could be the poisoner. Which would mean they probably don't have protection at night and would want to appear town today.

I someone were to jump on a lynch and hammer early, they would be an instant vig target.

Curtis (1/3) - im317, Timmah, im317
Timmah (1/3) - Curtis

Current count

Skimmed through Timmah and Curtis' posts throughout the game, making notes of their suspects throughout. Still drawing conclusions from it myself, but feel free to check them out.

Spoiler

+

Timmah Day 2: Timmah lynched JC the day he was silenced. Unlynched when JC broke the rules of his silencing and announced it, thought me and Norbert were alternate suspects. Day 3: Said im317 was trending scummy to him, suspected me and Norbert still. Lynched Rose when she was RB'd by Buffy, said Herm was suspect for being wishy washy Day 4: Said he wanted to wait for im317 to show before lynching Ari. Eventually lynched him, saying he would change his mind if 317 showed. Said he got a scum vibe from Canuck. Said he'd be shocked if one of the twins wasn't a bad guy. Day 5: Said his no.1 suspect was Canuck, cause he just blended in, wouldn't vote Ari etc. 2nd was Herm, cause he wasn't playing a town game, and no.3 was Dylan. He also mentioned Redster and Jay but said they weren't active at all. Was the second one to join me lynching Redster the first time I tried to on Day 5 (The day the Curtis vote tied) Day 6: Said he was leaning Jay as GF or me and Curtis both as mafia. Said he wished im317 had taken out one of Jay or Curtis. Lynched Redster despite having bigger suspects. Day 7: Claimed vanilla town. Pointed ou that Curtis and Herm skipped the Herm lynch entirely, said Schrauben jumped on late. Said he still thinks Curtis is scum, though Herm might be the right lynch. Then lynched Herm. Curtis Day 3: Came in with a reasonably lengthy post saying he found Primate scummy, culminating in a lynch. Didn't like the way he showed up, lynched JC, and cited his reason as "For acting pretty silly". Said he wanted to see Buffy and Chris flip. Found im317 suspicious for saying he wanted to hear from JC (the day he was silenced). Lynched Rose when Buffy revealed the RB, immediately unlynched when Rose claimed, went back to Primate. Day 4: Lynched Ari for pressure. Unlynched later. Thought the idea of lynching Brian and casuing a no lynch was dumb. Day 5: Said he found Redster/Jay and Timmah to be his top suspects. Finally lynched Jay. Became a suspect himself and almost got lynched was it not for me tying it. Day 6: lynched Jay straight away, but unlynched, saying he had a town vibe. Lynched Schrauben instead. Said he thought 317 should have shot either him or Jay to clear up the Day 5 mess. Found it shady that Redster was suggesting a 317 lynch. Lynched him. Day 7: lynched schrauben, then changed his mind. Said he thought Ben could be innocent cause he said on day 6 "Lynching Redster might not be a bad idea" Suggested we are missing a Godfather. Said he found Schrauben, Herm, Canuck and Timmah scummiest.

There's a lot to think about there. More so for Timmah, but that's purely due to the volume of posts.

I find it interesting that both times I started a train on Redster, on Days 5 and 6, he was the second to join it both times, though each time he mentioned having bigger suspects. I would like to hear his thoughts on that.

Timmah @ 9/11/2015 20:14

Whatever day we lynched redster was the day where I went back and posted every remaining players' final votes with some analysis. When I looked at those, Redster's was one that jumped out to me because when he was active he wasn't doing much. When Jay and schrauben were active they at least appeared to be trying to be somewhat helpful. Some of that was meta though because we all play on the other site. I also had a town read from you after the Ari lynch and the game play to that point

Okay, but the day you joined Redsters lynch the first time (day 5) you also posted that you didn't really have a read on him. Here is the quote for reference:

Quote

3. curtis - no read at all; he lynched Ari early last day "for pressure", but quickly unlynched after the claim and never lynched him again; 4. wikey - has been very active - was an early suspect of mine - lean slightly town; 8. timmah - so town it hurts; 10. Schrauben - no read on him at all; 11. Dyl - had been leaning scum, but he made a post earlier today that has me reconsidering; 12. JC - leaning town; 13. im317 - leaning town, though SK is not out of the question; 14. Jayadamo - he says he can't convince us he's town without dying, and seems to want to be killed - not sure what to make of Jay; 15. canuck - was leaning scum, but I'll buy his claim for now; 16. Redster - no read 17. Herm - has been super active, but I still lean slightly to the scum side on him

Look at those I have bolded. They would appear to be players you considered more suspicious than Redster, but you lynched him over any of them. I'm not really sure why. You said you had no read on him. Okay, you have explained that you didn't want to lynch Jay because at least he was active, and you could extend that argument to why you didn't lynch Herm. But you also found Dylan suspicious, a player who wasn't exactly the most active.

It does seem counterproductive that I should be calling someone out for lynching proven scum and maybe I am grasping straws, but I would like to know why you lynched Redster above someone like Dylan and why you didn't consider Schrauben, who you also had no read on.

It could be interpreted as you joining a lynch on a scum buddy to cast shade, not expecting it not to go anywhere.

You've got to be kidding me

Ok fine, that's fair I guess, at least me timmah and Curtis each have one vote each now. It would be nice if im317 would give his reasoning for choosing me specifically though.

We have plenty of time left to come to a decision.

Personally i'm leaning towards Timmah again. I would like to hear what he has to say about my follow up post, but I won't be casting a vote until tomorrow.

One last thing. I'm not completely prepared to discount the existence of a Mafia Godfather. The trouble is, if there is one, who poisoned Brian? Curtis put forward the possibility that it could be a one shot 3rd party role, perhaps a power im317 had in the scenario that he is the SK. But I can't see it personally. To have the ability to kill every night plus the one time ability to poison a player...it sounds too random.

Timmah (1/3) - Curtis
Wikey (1/3) - im317
Curtis (1/3) - im317, Timmah, im317, Timmah

Roughly 5 hours left...I am not going to cast a vote until I have to, but I gotta say i'm leaning Curtis again. Timmah has calmly defended every point I brought against him. I will wait to hear from him one last time before casting a vote.

Regardless of which of you is scum at this point, good job! Really good job! And if im317 is the SK, well done to you too!