Helios Garabandia @ 27/8/2016 22:23

Dadd @ 27/8/2016 22:07 Helios Garabandia @ 27/8/2016 20:41 Okay, so...first of all, someone triggered an Ult? Clearly, McCree is Scum. Why clearly? Could just be a terrible read by a townie? Admittedly, it's more of an assumption than anything else, but I'm making it based on math. Since we keep lynching Townies (which would only give us 5 points/day), and it seems like most night actions only grant about 10 points/night, only Mafia would've earned enough points (by being on the Townie lynches) to get to the needed 100 by now.

Not quite. 3 people have high enough upper limits to the range of points they might have that they could have unlocked their ults after the day phase and still be town. I'm one of those 2 though, and it wasn't me, nor did my ult unlock for last night.

A lot of people were already there with their upper limits as scum though, so that's still more likely.

Also TY Wikey! I originally got a PM saying I was attacked and lost HP last night (I won't get into details) but then Boc corrected himself. I didn't get any extra stuff in the first though, but maybe there was something off. I dunno.

I'll buy it

Lol @ lynching all the newbies though. YOU HAVE NOT LYNCHED ANYONE ELSE ALL GAME YOU DICK

besides yourself

Things I do on my first Saturday night back on campus: recreate spreadsheets for greater efficency

:( RIP

Decided to work on something else. FTR tho I was wrong. 4 people had high enough upper limits to have unlocked their ults in time for the night phase and still be town.

I'll probably post a full list later, but I don't really think I need to share that. Like I said, those are the people who could have reached ult before last night if they are town. There is a higher number of people who could have hit an ult as scum

I have written a basic java program to calculate ults. It's less useful than a spreadsheet and I don't know how to upload it. This is a good use of my time.

Mercator @ 28/8/2016 2:09

-dr @ 27/8/2016 22:32 I have written a basic java program to calculate ults. It's less useful than a spreadsheet and I don't know how to upload it. This is a good use of my time. Does it use 3D graphics?

No just a lot of superfluous nested if statements, a while loop, and int inputs because I forget how to work with strings.

I'd REALLY rather we not rush into a Wikey lynch. I was leaning scum yesterday but Boc's screw up with my update for last night is selling his claim a bit, and like I said yesterday, I kinda feel like he's just been a useful idiot because he wasn't paying attention.

We are at 12 left, and only one mafia down. Every day we think we've found the CLEAR SCUM, and every day we've been wrong. We can't afford to be wrong again. If the mafia started with 6, we're in a VERY bad spot where they can potentially control the day phases soon, and chances are good most if not all of them have their ults unlocked. Tonight's probably going to be a blood bath. We need to lynch scum today, which means we NEED to discuss this carefully and closely.

Maybe we should even discuss actions we've taken so far this game and our reasoning behind it. We can't just pile onto the day's scummiest character again.

Alright, here's the ranges I've come up with.



The top chart is current. It's where the ranges fall at the start of the day today. The bottom is where they would have stood at the end of yesterday: IE, everyone highlighted could be McCree

The two columns under Town and Scum are ranges. Lower end is assuming no actions have ever been taken to increase Ults. This is highly unlikely imo. I doubt anyone's ULTs are as low as the lower limit... or even close! The other collumn is the upper range. This assumes a gain of 10 points every night phase. Chances are most people will be close to the upper range, but most likely won't be all the way there. It's possible though.

A FEW CAVEATS
1. I didn't keep track of role block claims. If actions couldn't be completed, chances are very good those people would have lower upper limits than I've listed here, but it would still fall in the range.

2. I didn't factor in day abilities. That could POSSIBLY change the bottom chart but I don't think it would since we saw no evidence of day abilities iirc


WORTH NOTING:
Scum has probably all hit their Ults, or will have by the end of this day phase.

Tonight's going to suck a lot.

This means Wikey Merc and Brian cannot be McCree

Curtis, Odd, Vladdy, and I can all be McCree and still be town.

I am not McCree. I am better than a shitty cowboy.

The fact that McCree apparently attacked Vern means McCree is probably scum, but people were coming around on him possibly being scummy so it's still POSSIBLE he was town.

Wikey @ 28/8/2016 5:42

And then there is Helios. His strong start followed by him mellowing considerably reminds me of Silas from ATTWS

Helios is my biggest suspect today tbh.

From the start, his focus has been on mechanics and calling people out on the way they're playing. He's not SCUMHUNTING. All the agression is zeroing in on people who've said something stupid, not something scummy.

I REALLY didn't like his thing with Christian that spanned a few rounds. I'll try to dig it up, but it's an example of Helios targeting people to vote because they weren't playing or behaving the way he wants, rather than because he found the behavior scummy. Helios has always been picky about playstyles and an agressive player, but he's also always been a case builder when he's town. He usually puts those huge obnoxious multiquotes to good use. He hasn't though.

He's hunted down and exposed the double voter. He's discussed the town vote canceler after they flipped. His focus has been on picking apart mechanics and not on actually looking at or for scummy behavior.

Wikey did you get the vote cancel at the same time as the daykill notice?

Also since I had it in my sheet here are everyone's final votes at the end of each day.



Kinda hard to read anything from it