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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #1: 30th May 2017 9:18 PM | |
Kiwi would have to be GF. We still are looking at extra kills? Recall, we had one vig flip already.
Now we have 10:
Herm cleared 4 (one of which could still be GF or maybe SK I suppose):
1. Timmah
2. Merc
3. Kiwi
4. Brian
We have a group that has claimed or done something "town":
5. TIB swapped the kill to a mafia member (doesn't clear him of being 3rd party)
6. Badger lynched Zach when he didn't have to (doesn't clear him of being 3rd party)
7. Vlady lynched Zach when he didn't have to (doesn't clear him of being 3rd party)
8. Angi claimed inventor (doesn't clear her of being mafia or third party, imo)
9. Miko claimed nothing, but hinted at a role and gave us info that lynched mafia (doesn't clear him of being 3rd party)
10. Stephen is still a total unknown
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #2: 30th May 2017 9:20 PM | |
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I wish they had killed me, I can't believe I was wrong about him ugh. |
I can. Primate seemed pretty town the entire game. Meta, but he doesn't play that aggressively usually when scum. At least not for that protracted length of time.
Does Primate's flip and his saying that he didn't use his role until N2 put Angi squarely back on the hot seat? | |
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #3: 30th May 2017 9:29 PM | |
-5 mafia have flipped
-1 third party has flipped with a Chaos Team style reveal
-1 ???? That was janitored - He was clearly town and the mafia is using his role as a claim - Would it make sense for Angi to be using Curtis' role. Not sure it does, but worth a thought.
-Town even night vig has flipped - so last night's 2nd kill could be explained from an odd night vig, but then how did we get 2 kills the prior night? Sock actually seemed like a vig kill, though there shouldn't have been one, and Herm was attempted to be killed, which seems like mafia. And where did 3 kills come from N4?
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #4: 30th May 2017 9:36 PM | |
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Kiwi would have to be GF. We still are looking at extra kills? Recall, we had one vig flip already.
Now we have 10:
Herm cleared 4 (one of which could still be GF or maybe SK I suppose):
1. Timmah
2. Merc
3. Kiwi
4. Brian
We have a group that has claimed or done something "town":
5. TIB swapped the kill to a mafia member (doesn't clear him of being 3rd party)
6. Badger lynched Zach when he didn't have to (doesn't clear him of being 3rd party)
7. Vlady lynched Zach when he didn't have to (doesn't clear him of being 3rd party)
8. Angi claimed inventor (doesn't clear her of being mafia or third party, imo)
9. Miko claimed nothing, but hinted at a role and gave us info that lynched mafia (doesn't clear him of being 3rd party)
10. Stephen is still a total unknown
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Of the 4 inno scans, I rank most likely to least likely to be SK as follows: Merc, Kiwi, Brian, Timmah
Of that next group, I think that Angi is mos likely to be scum as I have thought since back in the beginning that she sounded like scum after her story changed about the night action. I am wondering if Primate saying he didn't use his action N1 makes that even more likely. She was the deciding vote to lynch Zach though, and could have lynched town nofo instead, which does bear some consideration. It is possible that mafia decided to sacrifice Zach since he'd been publicly outed as scum already, and was still getting heat from that claim. It's a lot of WIFOM, but I can definitely see that in play.
That Zach lynch is being used as evidence of "town" by several people. I would not be surprised to find third party in those 3, thinking that they'd get an extra night for mafia to whittle down the numbers even more and help push them further to end game. Remember, third party can hide by "scum hunting" mafia pretty effectively.
Still think we should've lynched Stephen days ago. | |
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #5: 30th May 2017 9:37 PM | |
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-1 ???? That was janitored - He was clearly town and the mafia is using his role as a claim - Would it make sense for Angi to be using Curtis' role. Not sure it does, but worth a thought. |
But then how does she know that Tib received an item the day he was silenced? |
Yeah, true. | |
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #6: 30th May 2017 9:37 PM | |
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I wish they had killed me, I can't believe I was wrong about him ugh. |
I can. Primate seemed pretty town the entire game. Meta, but he doesn't play that aggressively usually when scum. At least not for that protracted length of time.
Does Primate's flip and his saying that he didn't use his role until N2 put Angi squarely back on the hot seat? |
Where did he say that? I looked back and couldn't find what you were referring to, but this post kinda gives me the opposite impression.
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If Angi sent me something N1, I wouldn't have received it. |
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I thought he'd said he did too, but yesterday at least a couple people said that he said that he didn't. Pretty sure Herm went back and found it, actually. | |
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #7: 30th May 2017 9:45 PM | |
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Out of the "cleared" group timmah still comes in second to kiwi to me. Many of his posts seem to be spent on people I think are town pretty clearly. He def doesn't give me a good vibe.
I hope he doesn't read this and know I was talking bad about him |
There are a limited number of people left, so I am not really sure how you think I am spending my energy on people that you think are town?
Feel free to take my multiple posts from today in which I am clearly communicating my thoughts on every player left in the game and tell me where you disagree, though. I welcome additional discussion or some information that I may have missed.
You and Badger can both pretty easily figure out my role if you want to spend the time reading my posts and comparing them to actions that you know of. | |
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #8: 30th May 2017 9:49 PM | |
Why would it not be Merc, if anyone, from that group? I don't necessarily disagree with the Kiwi line of thinking, though. He seemed helpful early and has then pretty much disappeared. Stephen has done the exact same ever since I started telling you all that he's scum, fwiw.
I will go ahead and
##lynch Stephen
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #9: 30th May 2017 9:50 PM | |
Badger, you have a vendetta against me?!?! :( | |
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #10: 30th May 2017 10:28 PM | |
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My issue with the Stephen is scum argument is that THIS was the post that people jumped on:
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Okay, I'm going to go back to what I was originally doing and
##lynch Zachary
It came down to just some skips in logic that I cannot make sense of. If killing the princess would have sent the game immediately into another night phase, Zachary should have claimed this after DS was killed since the likelihood of a strongman/etc role being used was high. Angi brought light to this and that makes complete sense to me. I don't get why Angi is lynching Maddie when she basically said that Zachary should have claimed, not claiming it seems more like something mafia would do. Idk. Also looking the role up, it's usually only a lynch that will send the game into two nights -- not a killing. The killing just doesn't make sense as a condition on the role. |
Zach WAS the right call that day. And TBH I had similar concerns about Angi going into the next day.
People thought that this was his attempt to save Maddie and lynch Zach. They were correct. Why is this a bad thing? |
That's not what set off my radar on Stephen, fwiw. I've said it a bunch, but he came across as mafia to me that entire day by actively trying to paint the announcement that Zach was scum as a chaos team action, and only after I started calling him out on it did he reverse course and decide that lynching Zach would be okay. Or at least that's how I remember it. | |
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #11: 30th May 2017 10:28 PM | |
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Why would it not be Merc, if anyone, from that group? I don't necessarily disagree with the Kiwi line of thinking, though. He seemed helpful early and has then pretty much disappeared. Stephen has done the exact same ever since I started telling you all that he's scum, fwiw.
I will go ahead and
##lynch Stephen
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Because I've been playing like a town player with a shitty role from D1 that's prepared to be killed at night instead of a town PR?
Literally me_irl |
When you say shitty role, are you saying vanilla or worse than vanilla?
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And how has your play indicated that you would think you'd be killed at night? Other than being aggressive, I don't see it. | |
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #12: 30th May 2017 10:30 PM | |
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So here's something interesting I noticed. The only real evidence behind Miko's claim comes from a day when the mafia tracker was still alive. He hinted at having more information but that he was waiting, but he has yet to tell us.
He's moving down into my potential scum category until I hear more from him about the supposed information he received. |
The only thing that Miko said is that Merc didn't go anywhere. He could've gotten that from mafia tracker, or he and Merc could both be mafia with Merc as GF. Both are options I'd consider. | |
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #13: 30th May 2017 10:32 PM | |
If it was just Stephen and Zach that were up for lynch on D5, then I'd be screaming at you all to lynch Stephen (more than I already am), because if he flips mafia it could be telling about that lynch, possibly. | |
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #14: 30th May 2017 10:32 PM | |
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If it was just Stephen and Zach that were up for lynch on D5, then I'd be screaming at you all to lynch Stephen (more than I already am), because if he flips mafia it could be telling about that lynch, possibly. |
Should've added - but, town nofo was also there to be lynched. | |
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Timmah
The Butcher
| Reputation: 94 | Group: | Legend | Posts: | 8,753 | Joined: | Jan 13, 2015 |
| Post #15: 30th May 2017 10:34 PM | |
Yeah, I don't think Angi is mafia. Leaning town over third party too just based on the role, but perhaps the D1 spin lynch ruined her ability for them to work together as a team using her items. | |
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