I think there is a lot to be learned through the chain of events that transpired towards the end of last night's day phase. The vote was extremely close to tying. In fact from what I can tell, it technically did tie because Jay's vote was in on time and 317 didn't remember to unlynch JC so town got pretty lucky that the vote ended up going in our favor.

After seeing his flip, I think the mafia's goal was to keep Jay alive for one more night phase so that an unwitting townie would use their night action on him and mafia would get a free kill in the process (and not just ANY free kill, but a town power role kill). Jay's last ditch vote against Wikey would have looked super scummy and they must have known that it would attract townie attention. They were probably hoping to kill the vig but would have been happy to take out tracker/watcher as well. Assuming this was their plan, I can think of two ways they were trying to go about it.

A - Shift the vote onto Wikey
This is the more straightforward way to save Jay. Mafia knew that Wikey wasn't around to vouch for himself and could have pushed for his lynch without much resistance. They were basically one vote away from making this happen. If this was how they were planning on saving him then I think the best place to look for scum would be at would be Wikey's lynch train. By no means should the people on Jay's train be cleared (scum distancing is a thing) but its much easier to narrow things down by focusing on Wikey's. I really doubt that in this scenario there wouldn't be at least ONE scum member on Wikey's train and there are only 3 players on that train that are currently alive.

B - Tie the vote
This is the more roundabout way to save Jay but it would make sense if Wikey is also scum himself. Tying the vote would have saved both of them, and with Jay being the one to do the last minute vote flip he is still the player more likely to attract the attention of town power roles that would have unintentionally killed themselves by visiting him. In this scenario, I would think there would probably be scum on both trains so they could keep the numbers relatively close together in order to engineer a tie last minute.

There's probably another scenario that I'm missing here, but these are the two that jump out at me. And in both of them, I feel like the Wikey train is the place to start because I have a hard time seeing mafia not put forth at least SOME effort to save their PGO to potentially take out a strong town role. Obviously Ahoda wasn't scum so I think we should be looking closely at 4 people right now - Vern, Timmah, JC and Wikey (REALLY want to hear his thoughts right now). IMO We have enough material throughout the five days of this game that we should be able to get this lynch right.

As a sidenote, no one should be assuming that another player isn't mafia/scum just because they are seen visiting a person and that person doesn't die. There are generally 5/6 mafia players in a game minimum and the mafia only usually has one faction kill. There are plenty of other things that scum does at night (watching/roleblocking/plant bombs/recruiting/protecting other scum etc.)

Town Roleblocker is also dead for the record, but I guess it's possible as we know there is at least one in-training role in this game.

Herm, seeing as both Dadd and Jay seemed to try and lynch you I currently see you as pretty pro-town. I'd really like to see one of those big detailed posts of yours if you have the time.

Vern For Mod 2016 @ 22/1/2016 11:44

Do we really think there's a backup doc too when we've already had a doctor and a bodyguard? I believe in a Mafia Doctor..

Bryce being protected by a mafia doctor doesn't make much sense. He was the clinching vote on Jay yesterday, and it seems far more likely that the mafia would attack Bryce than Ahoda.

Wikey @ 22/1/2016 11:47

First of all, I think your blowing the Day 2 train on me way out of proportion. I was the third highest in the votes, but Miko and Titan were ahead by a fair few. Are you suggesting that Dadd lynching Titan was not only an attempt to save Miko, but an attempt to save me too? That because he chose to lynch Titan over me, that might mean I am scum? Because that makes no sense! Dadd's vote and Vernon's vote on me would not have been enough to put me in the lead, and Miko would have gotten lynched. And yesterday's vote. If I am scum, why would my buddies lynch Jay over me? He was PGO! A very powerful role for Mafia. Scum are either actively throwing their own under the bus, or simply not intervening to defend them. Perhaps the reason there was no town on my train is that scum aren't voting very often, leaving us to it.

What people are pointing out is that Miko, Dadd and Dadd's extra vote all were placed on Titan around the same period of time and that 3 votes would have been enough to lynch you.

The suggestion is that they were protecting you and lynching Titan because you are on their mafia team. We can't entirely rule that possibility out but I think the more likely explanation is that Titan had already claimed his role was and mentioned that he was most likely going to use it to kill Buffy. Mafia prolly realized that they could get a two for one if they took him out.