Lamps @ 13/1/2015 20:32

Hi Schrauben

Hello, how you doing lamps?

Still trying to find a decent way to track all this information.

Unless I figuring it wrong, everyone had essentially a 16% chance of landing two Anti-Town roles and a 36% chance of landing two Pro-Town roles. That leaves 48% chance for everyone to land one of each.

So that means it pretty unlikely that someone landed two Anti-town roles.

Lamps @ 13/1/2015 20:41

schrauben @ 13/1/2015 21:40 Lamps @ 13/1/2015 20:32 Hi Schrauben Hello, how you doing lamps? I'm good, thank you. How are you? Read anything interesting in this thread? :p

Goods thanks, I think it's a crap shot at this point regarding the discarded roles. There's probability for everyone to have kept a PT role, and after reading through all of the Pro-Town roles thrown out, they aren't any of them that I think man I would have loved that role. I tossed mine out only because it seemed useless to the town. Which was Town Ascetic.

schrauben

Still trying to find a decent way to track all this information. Unless I figuring it wrong, everyone had essentially a 16% chance of landing two Anti-Town roles and a 36% chance of landing two Pro-Town roles. That leaves 48% chance for everyone to land one of each. So that means it pretty unlikely that someone landed two Anti-town roles.

I'm not sure how you managed to run that calculation, but if it's accurate good job.[/QUOTE]

Been awhile since I've had a probability course, but my thinking was as follows assuming that everyone was the first one to draw roles.

83 Pro-Town Roles (60%)
56 Anti-Town Roles (40%)

Chances of getting both Pro-Town roles should be (60%*60%=36%)
Chances of getting both Anti-Town roles should be (40%*40%=16%)

That means the chances of getting both would have been 48%.

^ Quote fail above.

[QUOTE=Tom Brady@14/1/2015 3:15]Can't we lynch an inactive like we usually do?

Also, I am more inclined to trust all those who have been revealed to have turned down scum roles.

It is unlikely that many of them were given the choice between two anti-town roles.[/QUOTE]

I disagree, I think there's a possibility of 4-5 of them still being Anti-town.

##lynch ari

Lowest poster without a post of any content. I can see a Matt lynch as well with him not posting yet, I'll wait until he has the night to respond before voting him.

I believe Moose for now and I've seen Ahoda play this way in the past and it's not atypical by any means, doesn't mean he isn't scum just means that I have seen him play like this as Pro-Town as well.

## unlynch Ari

I agree with Lamps reasoning on Rob, however I'm going to save my vote for a bit, I'm starting to warm up to a Moose lynch, cause the more I think about it, I don't understand as a Town Vanilla why one would claim that soon putting pressure on themselves, when imo the way to play it is essentially sacrifice and allude to more of a power role that would take attention during the night and saving a power role. Someone said something similar to this earlier, but I can't remember who and don't have time to go back and look.

Ari @ 14/1/2015 14:47

schrauben @ 14/1/2015 14:36 ## unlynch Ari I agree with Lamps reasoning on Rob, however I'm going to save my vote for a bit, I'm starting to warm up to a Moose lynch, cause the more I think about it, I don't understand as a Town Vanilla why one would claim that soon putting pressure on themselves, when imo the way to play it is essentially sacrifice and allude to more of a power role that would take attention during the night and saving a power role. Someone said something similar to this earlier, but I can't remember who and don't have time to go back and look. You think its more likely that scum Moose would claim on day 1 a role that he cant prove he has? Seems pretty risky seeing as she didnt have any heat on her.

I agree, that's why I didn't think we should lynch her earlier, but how does a Town Moose, claim VT and help the town?

@ Ari, I'm not sure if Moose is scum or not. I have leaned town with her, that's why I said I was starting to warm to the idea, only because there wasn't a valid reason for it imo.

Lamps @ 14/1/2015 15:03

I think lynching an inactive is better than no lynch is better than VT lynch.

Well the only ones left that haven't posted per my count and trying to determine who is who based on posting names and sign up names are:

Chris
Jamie
Tricks

Christian @ 14/1/2015 15:26

Tricks also falls into the inactive camp. But based on their discards, I'd fell better about lynching Jeff honestly.

Jeff is Norbert right??

Christian @ 14/1/2015 15:34

woah, we already have 3 ties.

I don't think so, pretty sure Lamps vote it on Rob.

Christian @ 14/1/2015 15:31

schrauben @ 14/1/2015 10:28 Christian @ 14/1/2015 15:26 Tricks also falls into the inactive camp. But based on their discards, I'd fell better about lynching Jeff honestly. Jeff is Norbert right?? Yes.

Thanks just trying to figure out these aliases.

Jeff=Norbert
Wikey=Tom Brady
Kru=Korr
PORL=Paul

I think that's about it for this one.

Christian @ 14/1/2015 15:37

Matt, Moose and Curtis are tied for the lead with 3 votes each.

Pretty sure Matt only has two, Lamps is listed twice on the vote count and he's been pretty adamant about Rob.