Ole' Vern @ 25/8/2016 21:18

Drake @ 25/8/2016 19:04 im317 @ 25/8/2016 20:58 i was attacked yet again, thankfully i was also healed. im still a bit shocked over how Chris could manage to fuck up this much. first he doesn't say anything about running into the mine, which would have confirmed Seb's claim, if not his alignment. then he gets his role ass backwards. that has to be up there with the worst i have ever seen anyone mess up in a single game. So you're def a scum tank and a scum Doctor healed you. He didn't heal you til now since he knew you still had tons of HP. How revealing of you. Would anyone be object to a 317 lynch? Drake this is a weird post...... your weirdest one yet :paco: Can't tell if drunk... or something else

His next post where he basically "took it back" is much weirder...

My reads thus far- ordering based not on read but based on player order:

Town People, barring significant info, I won’t be voting:

1. Curtis- Curtis is a clever player. Folks are usually loathe to vote him and I think he plays this up to his advantage when he is scum. Him being absent earlier in the game made it harder to get a reading on him, but I do feel like he was scum hunting more recently. I also think Vern and Ahoda not killing him off last night when they likely could have been able means they felt the same (though I could be wrong, since Vern still has him listed as scum but didn’t say anything about attacking him).


7. Oddilus- I believe he is a newbie, but he hasn’t been playing this up. IIRC, Boc said somewhere this was a RL buddy of his he got to play, but either this isn’t his first go around or Boc prepped him well, because he isn’t asking all the “newbie” stuff. His voting pattern doesn’t strike me as unusual and Lamps turn confirms Helios’ earlier analysis that vote thief does not equal double voter. I’d still like to see more activity from him

8. Helios- I’ve not played with Helios before, so I have nothing to judge him off of, but based on what I’ve heard he’s a very experienced player (Vern even said something about him inventing Mafia, but Vern talks a lot :P). I feel he’s spent some time analyzing the game and this shows up in his posts. OTOH, he seems to have a fixation on im317 I think is unusual, but I have been judging this as either something from a past game or Helios’ reading im317 from prior playing together (since Helios says they have played together in the past). Which of these two isn’t clear, but Helios thinks im317 is scum.

14. Dadd- This is a harder read, since Dadd was out for a few game days. But based on his actions, I think Dadd is town. I have a lot of experience with Dadd and so my judgment on him is more a feeling based on how I know his play rather than on any hard evidence. It’s funny but I think his early off-train votes on me show him as town more than anything. :P

15. dr- I feel rose has been disclosing information to help. I also feel like she is thinking and scum hunting. While it could all be an elaborate set up, I think it is all genuine- getting a similar feeling from her to last game when she was miller re: being genuine. 

17. Ole Vern- I often feel Vern is scummy, since he sometimes rushes to judgment and focuses on people instead of scum hunting. I do feel he has been a bit more tempered this game and has been trying to scum hunt.


Leaning Scummy People I’m more likely to vote for today:

4. Wikey- I know Wikey is a very clever player. He’s been very erratic this game- the end of day actions yesterday, the vote on Herm, etc. all point to someone not very focused on the game. His activity has been a bit erratic as well. I take this more as someone trying to *look* unfocused rather than actual neglect of the game. Combined with the drake feud, this looks engineered in my eyes.

13. Drake- He is the second “newbie” this game (Oddilus being the other one) but unlike Odd he seems to be playing the newbie game a lot more- questions, obvious mistakes, etc. He is also focused on Wikey, which, as noted above, seems very engineered to look like they are against each other- I think if one flips, they are both scum.

22. im317- I could be reading Helios totally wrong, but I think he spotted something early in IM’s play that struck him as suspicious. The “attacked each night” could be engineered, so he could very well be a scum tank.


The Great Unknowns People I could go either way on mostly:

5. Christian- I’m having a hard time reading him, though his activity has been good. Some of his posts have been a little scummy and there have been some questions on him, but I really don’t get a scum feeling from him, so I lean more town on him than not. Without some evidence, I’d be unlikely to vote him; he almost made my town list.

10. Itsbrianyay- Activity has been low, though I know he is going through some significant RL shit right now. This last is making me give him more of a pass on the inactivity, though I shouldn’t, since brian and I usually end up going after each other in mafia for some reason or other (see Harvey vs Chod in the ATTWS VI graveyard, vlady vs brian in Whedonverse mafia, etc.). rose’s beef with him doesn’t seem to concern her enough to have targeted him for a vote today. He could be lurking scum, but I’m still giving him the benefit of the doubt right now.

12. Thisisbad- He is a very clever player. His activity has been decent and comparable to what I am used to from him. I don’t have a strong vibe from him either way right now. I would likely lean town on him at this point.

16. Timmah- Another very clever player. Activity hasn’t been strong, but I have always had a hard time reading him. When he is town, he can be a strong asset, but when he is scum, he can be tough to defeat. I could go either way on him at this point.

20. Mercator- Activity has been pretty low. I know travel has been involved. I’ve been giving him a pass because I know his activity was low for Kyoto Song too, so I’ve just been assuming he’s been unable to play rather than lurking scum. If we were earlier in the game and relying on lynching inactives because we didn’t have any better reads, he’d be my prime target.

So, barring additional info, I'm voting Wikey, Drake, or im317 today. I'm still deciding which. Likely drake.

I gave my reads yesterday, but I will update them because a few have changed:

Town:
Timmah (obv.)
Vern (I'm not used to reading Vern as town, but I've read him as town from the start)
rose (combine the attacks with her play and I read town)

Feel okay about:
Odd (I am starting to question the validity of double voter having to be town after the flips we've seen, but I think he's still mostly tried to help the town)
Christian (I usually read Christian as town...)
im317 (his reactions to people continuing to pressure him on the attacks have seemed town to me)
Curtis (I always read Curt as scum, so the fact that I'm not right now is a bit scary)

Middle of the Road:
TIB (I pushed on him a little yesterday to see how he reacted and he moved towards town side for me as a result of his responses)
Vlady (I honestly have no read on vlady - not sure if it was because he has been gone or what)
Helios (I'm very back and forth on him. One day he seems to be playing town, and the next I'm not sure what he's doing)

Trending down:
brian (hello? are you there? When you show up, will you post something useful?)
Dadd (I think Dadd was on vacation, but I have not gotten a helpful vibe from him when he's been posting)
Merc (Is he always this inactive?)
Wikey (his posts have been all over the place)

Gotta be scum:
Drake (I was leaning this way yesterday already, and his posts this day phase have been horrible)

The Herm-Ahoda Day One Lynch tie up:
Herm (6/12) - Dylan, Spin, Oddilus, Helios, Vern
Ahoda (5/12) - Helios, Curtis, Sabataged, Chris, Vern, Ahoda, Oddilus, dr, Herm

D2 Lynch
Sabataged (6/11) - Ahoda, Spin, Vern, Drake, Lamps, Timmah, im317, Helios

D3 Lynch
Angi (5/11) - Ahoda, Wikey, Curtis, dr, Oddilus, Ahoda

D4 Lynch
Chris (9/10) - Christian, Lamps, Ahoda, Drake, Curtis, thisisbad, im317, Vlady, Dadd, Vern

Dadd @ 26/8/2016 9:44

The Herm-Ahoda Day One Lynch tie up: Herm (6/12) - Dylan, Spin, Oddilus, Helios, Vern Ahoda (5/12) - Helios, Curtis, Sabataged, Chris, Vern, Ahoda, Oddilus, dr, Herm D2 Lynch Sabataged (6/11) - Ahoda, Spin, Vern, Drake, Lamps, Timmah, im317, Helios D3 Lynch Angi (5/11) - Ahoda, Wikey, Curtis, dr, Oddilus, Ahoda D4 Lynch Chris (9/10) - Christian, Lamps, Ahoda, Drake, Curtis, thisisbad, im317, Vlady, Dadd, Vern

Unknowns from D1 lynches: Oddilus, Helios, Vern, Curtis, dr

Unknowns from D2 lynch: Vern, Drake, Timmah, im317, Helios

Unknowns from D3 lynch: Curtis, dr, Oddilus

Unknowns from D4 lynch: Christian, Drake, Curtis, im317, Vlady, Dadd, Vern

Mafia on these lynches?

Vern, Curtis were on 3 out of 4, and stand out

Helios, Oddilus, dr, Drake, im317 were on 2 out of 4, and are borderline. Although I agree with the majority that rose seems town. So I'd remove her from the list, and I personally feel im317 is town.

So I'd look at this group today:
Vern
Curtis
Helios
Oddilus
Drake

vladykins @ 26/8/2016 10:17

I know Wikey is a very clever player. He’s been very erratic this game- the end of day actions yesterday, the vote on Herm, etc. all point to someone not very focused on the game. His activity has been a bit erratic as well. I take this more as someone trying to *look* unfocused rather than actual neglect of the game. Combined with the drake feud, this looks engineered in my eyes.

Where did this myth come from?

Wikey @ 26/8/2016 10:04

vladykins @ 26/8/2016 10:17 I know Wikey is a very clever player. He’s been very erratic this game- the end of day actions yesterday, the vote on Herm, etc. all point to someone not very focused on the game. His activity has been a bit erratic as well. I take this more as someone trying to *look* unfocused rather than actual neglect of the game. Combined with the drake feud, this looks engineered in my eyes. Where did this myth come from?

A Jamaican told me.

You can't trust anything that Jamaican says.

I gotta say, I don't see how Drake flipping scum would make me scum. I called him out on his BS immediately, at a time when he was attracting no attention. More importantly, nobody was interesting in pursuing him except me until today.

It would make little sense to attract attention to a teammate who was under no threat. Plus, it would be terribly mean to throw a new player under the bus if they were your team mate.

I don't see it. If no more solid leads come up, I think Drake would be the best choice today.

Also, @Curtis @Rose

Yall both are striking me as very non committal and seem to be waiting for an easy townie to pile on.

Seems like less attacks the past night ... or less reports of attacks.

One more thing...the day kill attempt may not have been from scum, though the fact that it came combined with a cancelled vote suggests it was a coordinated attack.

The fact that Lamps flipped a role which interferes with lynch votes makes me more wary of trusting Odd. I wasn't aware that somebody else got their vote cancelled. That is interesting, and it sounds highly likely that there is a scum version of the same role.

It is worth keeping in mind that Odd almost certainly has other abilities in addition to his double vote, which appears to be passive. And furthermore, it is also likely that his additional power is related to vote manipulation. hmmmm

Ole' Vern @ 25/8/2016 22:13

Helios Garabandia @ 25/8/2016 20:05 im317 @ 25/8/2016 22:48 you are really starting to look like frustrated scum who cant manage to kill me at night and is not trying to get me lynched instead. and yet im not convinced you are scum. Given that 1)I can't attack at night and 2)I straight don't believe your claim, I'm not "frustrated scum". Are you saying you can attack during the day? I'm surprised we've seen all these role reveals showing day powers and yet no one ever uses them

This stuck out to me again after a re-read ... Ole' Vern picked up on it though.

Helios is a day attacker?

Helios, was it you who attacked me?!

Tbh, it could just as easily be read as him saying he doesn't have an attacking role fullstop.

So does it looks like Lamps used his nightly action to Vote cancel as follows:

N1/D2: Angi
N2/D3: Helios
N3/D4: Wikey
N4/D5: ?

Just trying to confirm in my mind