It's still possible you could be GF though, which I admit I didn't think you could be the last few days but now idk

I know it is WIFOM (is that the term??) but damn CURTIS suddenly you being all over me makes me suspect you even more. All game you have hated to admit that I am probably town and should live - and now here you are shedding light on to me- and I think hoping that people start voting for me.

You really should do. If there's someone who is playing a smart Mafia game and avoiding suspicion and voting out their Mafia allies it would be you.

Can someone sparknotes explain to me the Timmay/JC thing again? I don't think I quite understand that..

caps are my life vic

oh there is a page 2

Vern For Mod 2016 @ 22/1/2016 0:10

Can someone sparknotes explain to me the Timmay/JC thing again? I don't think I quite understand that..

Pre-N5: Timmah thought I was scum, a lot
N5: Bryce sees Timmah visit me last night. I'm still alive. Bryce argues Timmah is probably town.
D6: Timmah puts away the tunneling machine and agrees I'm probably town.

Note: While I'm at home in winter snow, my new home in the south apparently doesn't like snow. Power lines are going down all over the place here, and it wouldn't surprise me to be out of power by morning. So, if I don't post at all tomorrow, it's not because I don't want to, but it's because I'm saving my shitty phone battery for more important things.

I think there is a lot to be learned through the chain of events that transpired towards the end of last night's day phase. The vote was extremely close to tying. In fact from what I can tell, it technically did tie because Jay's vote was in on time and 317 didn't remember to unlynch JC so town got pretty lucky that the vote ended up going in our favor.

After seeing his flip, I think the mafia's goal was to keep Jay alive for one more night phase so that an unwitting townie would use their night action on him and mafia would get a free kill in the process (and not just ANY free kill, but a town power role kill). Jay's last ditch vote against Wikey would have looked super scummy and they must have known that it would attract townie attention. They were probably hoping to kill the vig but would have been happy to take out tracker/watcher as well. Assuming this was their plan, I can think of two ways they were trying to go about it.

A - Shift the vote onto Wikey
This is the more straightforward way to save Jay. Mafia knew that Wikey wasn't around to vouch for himself and could have pushed for his lynch without much resistance. They were basically one vote away from making this happen. If this was how they were planning on saving him then I think the best place to look for scum would be at would be Wikey's lynch train. By no means should the people on Jay's train be cleared (scum distancing is a thing) but its much easier to narrow things down by focusing on Wikey's. I really doubt that in this scenario there wouldn't be at least ONE scum member on Wikey's train and there are only 3 players on that train that are currently alive.

B - Tie the vote
This is the more roundabout way to save Jay but it would make sense if Wikey is also scum himself. Tying the vote would have saved both of them, and with Jay being the one to do the last minute vote flip he is still the player more likely to attract the attention of town power roles that would have unintentionally killed themselves by visiting him. In this scenario, I would think there would probably be scum on both trains so they could keep the numbers relatively close together in order to engineer a tie last minute.

There's probably another scenario that I'm missing here, but these are the two that jump out at me. And in both of them, I feel like the Wikey train is the place to start because I have a hard time seeing mafia not put forth at least SOME effort to save their PGO to potentially take out a strong town role. Obviously Ahoda wasn't scum so I think we should be looking closely at 4 people right now - Vern, Timmah, JC and Wikey (REALLY want to hear his thoughts right now). IMO We have enough material throughout the five days of this game that we should be able to get this lynch right.

As a sidenote, no one should be assuming that another player isn't mafia/scum just because they are seen visiting a person and that person doesn't die. There are generally 5/6 mafia players in a game minimum and the mafia only usually has one faction kill. There are plenty of other things that scum does at night (watching/roleblocking/plant bombs/recruiting/protecting other scum etc.)

JC @ 21/1/2016 23:57

Vern For Mod 2016 @ 22/1/2016 0:10 Can someone sparknotes explain to me the Timmay/JC thing again? I don't think I quite understand that.. Pre-N5: Timmah thought I was scum, a lot N5: Bryce sees Timmah visit me last night. I'm still alive. Bryce argues Timmah is probably town. D6: Timmah puts away the tunneling machine and agrees I'm probably town.

That makes no sense. There are so many more roles for visiting someone at night than there are for killing someone at night..

Vern For Mod 2016 @ 22/1/2016 1:20

JC @ 21/1/2016 23:57 Vern For Mod 2016 @ 22/1/2016 0:10 Can someone sparknotes explain to me the Timmay/JC thing again? I don't think I quite understand that.. Pre-N5: Timmah thought I was scum, a lot N5: Bryce sees Timmah visit me last night. I'm still alive. Bryce argues Timmah is probably town. D6: Timmah puts away the tunneling machine and agrees I'm probably town. That makes no sense. There are so many more roles for visiting someone at night than there are for killing someone at night..

I didn't say it was my sparknotes.

When I read Bryce's novel, my initial thought was that Timmah was there to roleblock me. Then I remembered that the mafia roleblocker is already dead, so if he is a roleblocker, he's town. However, he could be any of a large number of mafia visiting roles. I didn't die, and I wasn't told anything about his visit, so my guess is he wasn't there to kill me.

If I had to put odds on it, I'd probably go 60/40 town right now on Timmah, but since he spent his time on D3-D5 tunneling in on me, I don't really put a whole lot of stock into his analysis at this point (because I know he was wrong on me).

You'll get top 3 from me when I get home, Vern.

Town Roleblocker is also dead for the record, but I guess it's possible as we know there is at least one in-training role in this game.

Herm, seeing as both Dadd and Jay seemed to try and lynch you I currently see you as pretty pro-town. I'd really like to see one of those big detailed posts of yours if you have the time.

Vernon got his vote stolen n1 by Dadd.

Seems a bit risky to use such a good one-time ability on a fellow scum member on n1 right?

BadgerMcBeaver @ 22/1/2016 1:40

Town Roleblocker is also dead for the record, but I guess it's possible as we know there is at least one in-training role in this game.

Yep, I missed that. So, my guess is he wasn't there to roleblock me. I won't ask him to claim what he was doing at my house last night, but I'm not instantly clearing him yet.

## Lynch Wikey

I thought he was the best choice yesterday, and I haven't seen anything today to change that line of thinking.