-dr @ 27/8/2016 22:32

I have written a basic java program to calculate ults. It's less useful than a spreadsheet and I don't know how to upload it. This is a good use of my time.

Does it use 3D graphics?

I'm gonna go ahead and
##Lynch: im317

Been getting scum vibes from him, he seems flipfloppy and doesn't really reason his lynch votes.

Also not buying that the same person would attack him every single night, seems like something scum would say to look like mafia is targeting them.

Mercator @ 28/8/2016 2:09

-dr @ 27/8/2016 22:32 I have written a basic java program to calculate ults. It's less useful than a spreadsheet and I don't know how to upload it. This is a good use of my time. Does it use 3D graphics?

No just a lot of superfluous nested if statements, a while loop, and int inputs because I forget how to work with strings.

Oh and thanks Rose for asking yesterday hours before anyone else if I was silenced, I asked Boc if I could like or dislike posts, because I hate when people do that in Mafia, it's fucking communicating, and he said "nope".

Current Tally

Wikey (1/7) - Vlady
Oddilus (1/7) - Wikey
Curtis (1/7) - Dadd
im317 (1/7) - Merc

18.5 hours remaining

Checking in really quick while doing last minute packing before we get on the road (we're driving DC to Orlando today and leaving in a little bit).

I'm lynching Wikey today because he *has* to be scum. Nothing else makes sense. The erratic voting for Herm when he was long since dead. Him stating he was going to target and attack Rose when she has been one of the least scummy people this game (and if she has me fooled, then my hat is off to her).

The only thing I can say is that I am pretty sure he is *not* McCree, based on my ULT estimates.

But Wikey's sig is killing me. lol

Back to packing.

I'd REALLY rather we not rush into a Wikey lynch. I was leaning scum yesterday but Boc's screw up with my update for last night is selling his claim a bit, and like I said yesterday, I kinda feel like he's just been a useful idiot because he wasn't paying attention.

We are at 12 left, and only one mafia down. Every day we think we've found the CLEAR SCUM, and every day we've been wrong. We can't afford to be wrong again. If the mafia started with 6, we're in a VERY bad spot where they can potentially control the day phases soon, and chances are good most if not all of them have their ults unlocked. Tonight's probably going to be a blood bath. We need to lynch scum today, which means we NEED to discuss this carefully and closely.

Maybe we should even discuss actions we've taken so far this game and our reasoning behind it. We can't just pile onto the day's scummiest character again.

It looks like it was Christian I redirected from Rose.

-dr @ 28/8/2016 1:24

I'd REALLY rather we not rush into a Wikey lynch. I was leaning scum yesterday but Boc's screw up with my update for last night is selling his claim a bit, and like I said yesterday, I kinda feel like he's just been a useful idiot because he wasn't paying attention. We are at 12 left, and only one mafia down. Every day we think we've found the CLEAR SCUM, and every day we've been wrong. We can't afford to be wrong again. If the mafia started with 6, we're in a VERY bad spot where they can potentially control the day phases soon, and chances are good most if not all of them have their ults unlocked. Tonight's probably going to be a blood bath. We need to lynch scum today, which means we NEED to discuss this carefully and closely. Maybe we should even discuss actions we've taken so far this game and our reasoning behind it. We can't just pile onto the day's scummiest character again.

Yeah thanks to a Boc fuckup we know 100% that either Wikey is town or both of you are scum.

And I doubt you are scum.

Mercator @ 28/8/2016 2:11

-dr @ 28/8/2016 1:24 I'd REALLY rather we not rush into a Wikey lynch. I was leaning scum yesterday but Boc's screw up with my update for last night is selling his claim a bit, and like I said yesterday, I kinda feel like he's just been a useful idiot because he wasn't paying attention. We are at 12 left, and only one mafia down. Every day we think we've found the CLEAR SCUM, and every day we've been wrong. We can't afford to be wrong again. If the mafia started with 6, we're in a VERY bad spot where they can potentially control the day phases soon, and chances are good most if not all of them have their ults unlocked. Tonight's probably going to be a blood bath. We need to lynch scum today, which means we NEED to discuss this carefully and closely. Maybe we should even discuss actions we've taken so far this game and our reasoning behind it. We can't just pile onto the day's scummiest character again. Yeah thanks to a Boc fuckup we know 100% that either Wikey is town or both of you are scum. And I doubt you are scum.

Well not 100%, but still we can be pretty sure.

Alright, here's the ranges I've come up with.



The top chart is current. It's where the ranges fall at the start of the day today. The bottom is where they would have stood at the end of yesterday: IE, everyone highlighted could be McCree

The two columns under Town and Scum are ranges. Lower end is assuming no actions have ever been taken to increase Ults. This is highly unlikely imo. I doubt anyone's ULTs are as low as the lower limit... or even close! The other collumn is the upper range. This assumes a gain of 10 points every night phase. Chances are most people will be close to the upper range, but most likely won't be all the way there. It's possible though.

A FEW CAVEATS
1. I didn't keep track of role block claims. If actions couldn't be completed, chances are very good those people would have lower upper limits than I've listed here, but it would still fall in the range.

2. I didn't factor in day abilities. That could POSSIBLY change the bottom chart but I don't think it would since we saw no evidence of day abilities iirc


WORTH NOTING:
Scum has probably all hit their Ults, or will have by the end of this day phase.

Tonight's going to suck a lot.

This means Wikey Merc and Brian cannot be McCree

Curtis, Odd, Vladdy, and I can all be McCree and still be town.

I am not McCree. I am better than a shitty cowboy.

The fact that McCree apparently attacked Vern means McCree is probably scum, but people were coming around on him possibly being scummy so it's still POSSIBLE he was town.

Damn dr, that must have taken a while.

I think narrowing down who McCree is will be impossible right now if it's between all those people. I could see somebody taking a shot at Vernon under the belief he might be scum.

I'm feeling better about Curtis now, and perhaps also Brian. Brian said yesterday that he believed me and Drake both to be town, I seem to recall.

It's hard to tell with Oddilus. I forgot to answer Merc, but wasn't there some confusion the other day which seemed to suggest multiple people have their votes stolen/cancelled?

When my vote was cancelled, it specifically said I could cast another vote. Lamps role seemed to cancel the player from voting at all.

So, what's the deal here? Are Oddilus and Lamps both town with vote related abilities? Doublevoter as scum is rare, but not impossible.

And then there is Helios. His strong start followed by him mellowing considerably reminds me of Silas from ATTWS