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Day 3; It can't be this easy...
 
Mittens
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Post #331: 6th Dec 2016 7:13 PM 
A quick recap would be great. Anything important I've missed since 3:30?
 
   
Herm
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Post #332: 6th Dec 2016 7:17 PM 
You're tied with im317.

Brian wants to duel again because he's a gambler.
 
   
DS.
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Post #333: 6th Dec 2016 7:19 PM 
Mittens, can you clarify what your actual role title is?
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Mittens
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Post #334: 6th Dec 2016 7:20 PM 
Darren Sanders @ 6/12/2016 19:19
Mittens, can you clarify what your actual role title is?

Town Samurai
 
   
itsbrianyay
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Post #335: 6th Dec 2016 7:22 PM 
mine is just gambler fyi

no town

but i am town
 
   
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Post #336: 6th Dec 2016 7:22 PM 
Darren Sanders @ 6/12/2016 15:55
Mittens, primate, im3

im conflicted. This post will just be me spewing my thoughts

If we lynch mittens, we have a 33.3% chance of hitting scum due to the carolers, and we can confirm/deny if there are recruiting factions in this game. That seems to be the lynch that gains us the most information, however, Mittens role does involve a kill or some kind.

If we lynch primate, we have a 33.3% chance of hitting scum, and some believe that we would have a 50% of hitting scum out of the BP counter claims. this seems to be the lynch that is, probability wise, the best chance of us hitting scum.

if we lynch im317, we have a 33.3% chance of hitting scum, and if we are wrong, we lose a town protective role that directs kills elsewhere. Another role where kills occur, which i dont like.

Primate is the only one that didnt claim he could cause someones death. Timmah told us (assuming it was Timmah) that Lamps did visit Farlig, so Farlig being PGO or some sort of defensive killing role, town or otherwise, would clear Primate. I see Farlig as the type of person who would lie about his role as PGO to hide his potential defensive kill ability.

Contrarily, I know its meta, but Primate was a bulletproof role on the GLB game that is going on right now, so what are the odds that he is BP in two separate games on two separate sites at the same exact time?


On the last part, you're thinking about it the wrong way.

It's like you roll a dice and get a 6, what are the odds of rolling a 6 the next time? 1/6, whatever happens before doesn't affect the chance.
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Post #337: 6th Dec 2016 7:24 PM 
idk man, i suck at math.

Im leaning toward mittens because samurai doesnt fit the flavor
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Post #338: 6th Dec 2016 7:25 PM 
itsbrianyay @ 6/12/2016 16:22
mine is just gambler fyi

no town

but i am town



it doesnt have to say it because your win condition is generic town, no?
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Post #339: 6th Dec 2016 7:33 PM 
yessir
 
   
DS.
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Post #340: 6th Dec 2016 7:33 PM 
seems like a slip by mittens
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Post #341: 6th Dec 2016 7:35 PM 
Darren Sanders @ 6/12/2016 16:33
seems like a slip by mittens

Nice catch man

##Unlynch

##Lynch: Mittens
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Post #342: 6th Dec 2016 7:37 PM 
Mafia roles are Martian X, while town are just X, Mittens (:
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Post #343: 6th Dec 2016 7:42 PM 
##duel brian
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Post #344: 6th Dec 2016 7:42 PM 
thanks DS : )
 
   
Mittens
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Post #345: 6th Dec 2016 7:46 PM 
Well mine says town in it so there's that
 
   
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