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JJ
Pig
| Reputation: 164 | Group: | Godfather | Posts: | 33,771 | Joined: | Jun 28, 2012 |
| Post #181: 26th Aug 2020 11:19 AM | |
Hi. Just wanted to say good morning. I'm leaving for the dentist, I'll be back later. | |
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Quizmaster Vern!
Of the people for the people
| Reputation: 57 | Group: | Godfather | Posts: | 28,173 | Joined: | Jun 28, 2012 |
| Post #182: 26th Aug 2020 11:27 AM | |
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I don’t think boobs ever found the baby. His role changed when Wikey died and his passive went off. |
For someone who is very smart and good at this game I am honestly shocked that you’re saying this. I had been thinking all last night “it’s ok. Lamps will get here and talk some reason into everyone!”
Lamps. Everyone. How can you logically look at Jamie’s role and say that there might not be a Baby and that the Baby wasn’t found!?
Woman scorned has one * next to it and was activated when her husband died.
It’s just you and me now has two ** and was activated when the Baby was found.
Looking at all the night kills we see that there was an unaccounted one the night after Boobs found the Baby. The same day that Boob publicly stated that she found the baby. The same day that Boobs was being pressured hardcore to be killed ...... BY MAL.
Did Boobs come out with her role so Mal knew not to kill her???? Because they were THAT close to winning the game. Honestly. I think it’s VERY possible.
In addition we know Boobs could scan two people a night. On top of that she knew who Wikey was already. And on top of that multiple people died most nights. There’s above a 50% chance that Boobs would have found the baby by the night she did, statistically speaking, too. Not to mention , again, that Boobs role flop LITERALLY SAYS SHE FOUND THE BABY
I feel like a mental patient. Am I crazy? How in the hell are you guys not following this!? | --------------------
Of the people, for the people!
YAW YAW YAW WINNER OF FELL GUYS! |
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Lamps
Sansa
| Reputation: 104 | Group: | Overlord | Posts: | 14,181 | Joined: | Oct 1, 2013 |
| Post #183: 26th Aug 2020 11:30 AM | |
There is a baby but Jamie never found it i think. | |
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Lamps
Sansa
| Reputation: 104 | Group: | Overlord | Posts: | 14,181 | Joined: | Oct 1, 2013 |
| Post #184: 26th Aug 2020 11:33 AM | |
Both have **
**Active - Woman scorned - At night you must choose someone to kill.**
**Passive - It's just you and me now - Your BABY is REDACTED. You cannot kill them. Your new win condition is to be one the last two remaining players, or three if REDACTED is still alive.** | |
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Lamps
Sansa
| Reputation: 104 | Group: | Overlord | Posts: | 14,181 | Joined: | Oct 1, 2013 |
| Post #185: 26th Aug 2020 11:34 AM | |
It’s possible Jamie got his first ** from visiting me and the second when Wikey died (bacause of his passive which implies something happens when wikey dies). | |
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Lamps
Sansa
| Reputation: 104 | Group: | Overlord | Posts: | 14,181 | Joined: | Oct 1, 2013 |
| Post #186: 26th Aug 2020 11:35 AM | |
*because | |
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Quizmaster Vern!
Of the people for the people
| Reputation: 57 | Group: | Godfather | Posts: | 28,173 | Joined: | Jun 28, 2012 |
| Post #187: 26th Aug 2020 11:38 AM | |
Lamps, come on!!!.... really!?
"Woman scorned" is a phrase meaning after the woman was betrayed or rejected via love in some form.... in this case, the death of her husband.
And "its just you and me now" is very obviously stating, "hey its just you and the Baby now.... so now you can kill because your husband is dead, and your win condition has changed!" | --------------------
Of the people, for the people!
YAW YAW YAW WINNER OF FELL GUYS! |
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Lamps
Sansa
| Reputation: 104 | Group: | Overlord | Posts: | 14,181 | Joined: | Oct 1, 2013 |
| Post #188: 26th Aug 2020 11:41 AM | |
Ok fine but as far as i can see this all happened because wikey died. It makes no sense to me that his former wincon changed as soon as he found the baby... since that was kind of the point of his former wincon lol. | |
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Quizmaster Vern!
Of the people for the people
| Reputation: 57 | Group: | Godfather | Posts: | 28,173 | Joined: | Jun 28, 2012 |
| Post #189: 26th Aug 2020 11:53 AM | |
Deep dive into the Baby finding statistics.
NIGHT 1: (minus Boobs herself, Wikey, and Nofo) 23 players to START
Boobs makes 2 guesses..... 23 minus 2 = 21 left.
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1. Nav
2. Rodney
3. TIB
4. Vern
5. Mal
6. Rose
7. Farlig
8. Curtis
9. Stargate
10. Christian
11. Moose
12. im317
13. Herm
14. Perry
15. Timmah
16. Lamps
17. Kyle
18. Cmaj7
19. Zach
20. Matt
21. Ahoda
22. Jackie
23. Buffy |
NIGHT 2:
Minus Rose..... that brings the player pool of guessing down to 20.
But also Minus 2 again for the next 2 guesses brings us down to 18 people.
NIGHT 3:
Gmaj, Herm, and Curtis all died this day. It's possible 1 of them could have been guessed already. Let's assume 1 was guessed for the sake of it.
18 minus 2 players = 16
Boobs makes 2 more guesses = 14
And by this point in the game many people had been claiming things. Me and Rodney are unlikely Baby picks for saying we could kill. We are unlikely guesses by Boobs for example. I'm sure there's 1 or 2 more people she probably avoided picking, like Navs who everyone thought seemed scummy for example. Using this logic we can honestly bring the player pool down even more to 11 or even 10..... but I will say 13 for the sake of cushioning.
And this is the night that Boobs found the Baby.
So out of an original 23 options on D1..... we can see that using the cushioning number of 13, Boobs had a 56.5% chance of finding the Baby. But again, there were people she very likely wouldn't have picked based on their roles, which brings the percentage up closer to 66%.
That's the STATISTICS.
And then there's, ya know, also the literal thing in Boob's role saying she found the Baby and could kill now. That too!
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Of the people, for the people!
YAW YAW YAW WINNER OF FELL GUYS! |
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Quizmaster Vern!
Of the people for the people
| Reputation: 57 | Group: | Godfather | Posts: | 28,173 | Joined: | Jun 28, 2012 |
| Post #190: 26th Aug 2020 11:54 AM | |
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Ok fine but as far as i can see this all happened because wikey died. It makes no sense to me that his former wincon changed as soon as he found the baby... since that was kind of the point of his former wincon lol. |
Whether or not she began killing when Wikey died or when she found the Baby doesn't change the fact that "It's Just You And Me Now" very clearly states that the Baby was found and it's just the 2 of them now. | --------------------
Of the people, for the people!
YAW YAW YAW WINNER OF FELL GUYS! |
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Quizmaster Vern!
Of the people for the people
| Reputation: 57 | Group: | Godfather | Posts: | 28,173 | Joined: | Jun 28, 2012 |
| Post #191: 26th Aug 2020 11:55 AM | |
And in fact, Lamps.... to your point..... if Boobs began killing after Wikey died, then Boobs would have had one more night to find the Baby. Timmah had died, and then she could have made 2 more guesses. That brings the percentage over 70%.
COME ON! | --------------------
Of the people, for the people!
YAW YAW YAW WINNER OF FELL GUYS! |
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Quizmaster Vern!
Of the people for the people
| Reputation: 57 | Group: | Godfather | Posts: | 28,173 | Joined: | Jun 28, 2012 |
| Post #192: 26th Aug 2020 11:56 AM | |
And with Me and Rodney still alive, and Nav.... people she likely avoided guessing....
Dude.!!!! | --------------------
Of the people, for the people!
YAW YAW YAW WINNER OF FELL GUYS! |
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Quizmaster Vern!
Of the people for the people
| Reputation: 57 | Group: | Godfather | Posts: | 28,173 | Joined: | Jun 28, 2012 |
| Post #193: 26th Aug 2020 12:00 PM | |
I think we need to kill Mal today.
I think Boobs had found Mal the night that Mal used his power, and she saw how incredibly close they were to achieving their own victory. Boobs came out with her role and said wasn't a threat to the town, but secretly knowing that she just needed to get Mal and Herself to survive 2 more days.
It was risky, but people were looking at her to be killed. And this was the sure fire way to convince Mal not to kill her, by coming out and saying she was the Mom. | --------------------
Of the people, for the people!
YAW YAW YAW WINNER OF FELL GUYS! |
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Quizmaster Vern!
Of the people for the people
| Reputation: 57 | Group: | Godfather | Posts: | 28,173 | Joined: | Jun 28, 2012 |
| Post #194: 26th Aug 2020 12:00 PM | |
Boobs had found Mal the night before* the day that he used his power..... is what I meant to say | --------------------
Of the people, for the people!
YAW YAW YAW WINNER OF FELL GUYS! |
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Quizmaster Vern!
Of the people for the people
| Reputation: 57 | Group: | Godfather | Posts: | 28,173 | Joined: | Jun 28, 2012 |
| Post #195: 26th Aug 2020 12:03 PM | |
At least give me this one, guys. If I am wrong, then just kill me tomorrow. And then figure it out from there after you see that I am town. | --------------------
Of the people, for the people!
YAW YAW YAW WINNER OF FELL GUYS! |
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