Well, if we end up with me and a player that confirms himself as town as the only lead lynches today then I'd be more than okay to step in and get lynched, but I think it's a mistake to focus on me when there are other players that we can try to pin down on.

Think we should try to get as much conversation from everyone as possible.

Jay have you looked back at Day 2 and seen Herm go for Miko in all of the confusion very late? (Same goes for you TImmah yes!)

Dont think its more plausible scum Herm would have picked Titan or Wikey? That way he might even have saved Dadd from the intense scrutiny he received following the result of that vote.

I guess that can also apply to Ahoda since his first order of business was lynching Herm.

Ari @ 20/1/2016 14:47

Jay have you looked back at Day 2 and seen Herm go for Miko in all of the confusion very late? (Same goes for you TImmah yes!) Dont think its more plausible scum Herm would have picked Titan or Wikey? That way he might even have saved Dadd from the intense scrutiny he received following the result of that vote.

I am looking back at it now.

Ari @ 20/1/2016 14:47

Jay have you looked back at Day 2 and seen Herm go for Miko in all of the confusion very late? (Same goes for you TImmah yes!) Dont think its more plausible scum Herm would have picked Titan or Wikey? That way he might even have saved Dadd from the intense scrutiny he received following the result of that vote.

OK I do see what you mean.

Curtis asked for a run down of the Miko/Titan lynch so here goes (with some of my own involvement added because I don't like being slandered):

- At 2:49 pm I lynched Bryce, but also mentioned Miko - was I think the first anyone had mentioned his name as possible scum: (it's my post #21 at 249 pm)

Timmah

I'd be against a Herm lynch. Probably against a Cannuck lynch right now, because I know he's been out of pocket. Might change my mind in another day or so. I'm not sure on ben. Rob isn't a bad choice due to inactivity. Merc has been reading off and on when I've looked today, but nothing to say? Interesting the number of people who feel compelled to say that they "are certain" that Titan is town when they either move their vote off of him or vote someone else. That's odd to me because I'm not certain about anything at this point. Miko was the last I noticed do this, so I would be okay with his lynch as well. ##lynch Bryce for the time being.

- at 4:17 pm of a day that ended at 432 pm - I voted Miko (but, according to some, I was stuck on him and it would've been shady for me to get off his lynch - nevermind the votes flying around like bombs in Baghdad circa 2002). I switched from Bryce after he soft claimed a PR. Just before my vote on Miko, this was the count posted by Buffy (Primate was on Miko, so maybe he was first to see it and not me, I didn't go back to find his vote. Also this count was not totally accurate!).

Buffy

Titan (5/15) - Timmah, Ahoda, Buffy, Chris, Titan, Rose, Canuck, Miko, Vernon, Bryce Bryce (5/15) - Badger, Buffy, Timmah, Dadd, Buffy, Badger, im317 Rob (2/15) - JC, Dadd, Herm, Ahoda, Rob, Buffy, FC, Primate Wikey (2/15) - Ahoda, JC Primate (1/15) - Merc, Buffy Brian (1/15) - Ari Herm (1/15) - Patrick Vernon (1/15) - Vernon Chris (1/15) - Dadd, Titan, Angi Angi (0/15) - Vic, Badger Wikey (0/15) - Ahoda Badger (0/15) - Free Candy Miko (0/15) - Titan, Primate 14 minutes

- Then I voted Miko at 417 as I mentioned (note: by this time Ahoda and JC had already started campaigning for Wikey's lynch for inactivity)

Timmah

I think Bryce only has 3 votes - me, Buffy and Badger I'm willing to give him the benefit I guess. ##unlynch ##lynch Miko

- Next, Dadd unlynched Bryce
- Then IM317 unlynched Bryce
- Then Badger unlynched Bryce and lynched Wikey
- next Vic lynches Cannuck (Seems kind of out of left field in hindsight)
- Next Ben lynches Miko (Miko now has 3 votes, Titan has maybe 7, Wikey still has 2 I think)
- Then IM317 lynches Titan
- Miko swaps his vote from Titan to Wikey (3rd on Wikey I think)
- Vic unlynches canuck (after being called out for trying to start a random wagon with 15 minutes left)
- Ari posts an updated vote count:

Ari

Titan (4/15) - Timmah, Ahoda, Buffy, Chris, Titan, Rose, Canuck, Miko, Vernon, Bryce Bryce (2/15) - Badger, Buffy, Timmah, Dadd, Buffy, Badger, im317 Rob (1/15) - JC, Dadd, Herm, Ahoda, Buffy, FC, Primate Wikey (4/15) - Ahoda, JC, Badger, Miko Primate (1/15) - Merc, Buffy Brian (1/15) - Ari Herm (1/15) - Patrick Vernon (1/15) - Vernon Chris (1/15) - Dadd, Titan, Angi Angi (0/15) - Vic, Badger Wikey (0/15) - Ahoda Badger (0/15) - Free Candy Miko (3/15) - Titan, Primate, Ben Canuck 1 - Vic

(He missed Vic unlynching Canuck, had me listed as "titan" on Miko's lynch, and incorrectly had Buffy still on Bryce - otherwise I think it was pretty accurate)

- Vic posts he'd be okay with Miko or Wikey
- Vic then lynches Wikey (avoiding his scum buddy?)
- Herm lynches Miko (Herm looks better looking at these)
- Ahoda still pushing for Wikey
- IM317 switches to Miko saying he doesn't want a tie (after another updated count was posted - ironically, he actually created a tie and that was pointed out to him)
- Buffy moves her vote to Miko
- Ari lynches Miko late (seems to be a town move to me, especially in that chaos)
- Miko unlynches Wikey and moves back to Titan (this is a bit odd to me - I think Wikey was up there with 5-6 lynch votes at that time - could be covering for a scum buddy?)
- Then Dadd lynches Titan (as we know this was a scum move to protect Miko)

Final vote count:

Titan (7/15) - Timmah, Ahoda, Buffy, Chris, Titan, Rose, Canuck, Miko, Vernon, Bryce, im317, Miko, Dadd, Vernon
Miko (6/15) - Titan, Primate, Timmah, Schrauben, Herm, im317, Buffy
Wikey (4/15) - Ahoda, Ahoda, JC, Badger, Miko, Vic
Rob (2/15) - JC, Dadd, Herm, Ahoda, Buffy, Candy, Primate, ??
Primate (1/15) - Merc, Buffy
Brian (1/15) - Ari
Herm (1/15) - Patrick
Canuck (0/15) - Vic
Vernon (0/15) - Vernon
Bryce (0/15) - Badger, Buffy, Dadd, Buffy, Badger, im317
Badger (0/15) - Free Candy
Chris (0/15) - Dadd, Titan, Angi
Angi (0/15) - Vic, Badger

Titan has been lynched.

Some of my own thoughts from compiling that:

- Miko's late swap off of Wikey, even though Wikey was close in lynch votes hits me as odd. It could be that he wanted to make sure Wikey wasn't going to get lynched. Or maybe he just realized what the real vote count was and that Titan needed to be lynched (recall though, it took Dadd and Dadd's control of Vern's vote to swing that...)

- Vic looks bad to me in all of this. He tried to swing votes in a totally different direction than we were going (and was called out on it), made sure to mention Miko as a possibility, but then voted Wikey instead.

- Badger looks bad fro simply moving to Wikey with no word on why

Vic you scum bro?!

Ari @ 20/1/2016 9:35

Timmah @ 20/1/2016 16:30 Curtis, Vic and now Ari have gone out of their way to protect JC. To the point where my gameplay has been "filtered" to suit their goal of doing so. Just pointing that out Please explain this to me: "But do you think scum JC would be so careless as to take the whole decision into his own hands? He could have easily started a discussion going, everyone would pile together a list of people and then he would avoid shooting one of his scum buddies that where on that list. It would have been very easy for scum JC to look diplomatic in his decision and yet save a scum buddy."

As for this, I understand what you are saying, I really do. I have the benefit of having played these games with JC for a long time though. If he'd "asked everyone else" to tell him who to shoot, several of us would've known right away that he's scum, because he simply doesn't operate that way. Looking at it this way is also a legit WIFOM argument. I don't pretend to know what goes on in people's head when they make these decisions.

But, here is where I am stuck. Let's say he did this: that compiled list from everyone would've read: Miko, Dadd, Herm. Because, those were the 3 candidates for lynch at that exact time. Miko was the clear lynch based on Pat's scan, but Dadd and Herm (also based on Pat's scan) were close behind. In this situation, if I am scum, I know that if I shoot Miko as I should, then the odds of Dadd being the lynch that day are extremely high. Thus, mafia would've lost 2 members in the span of a single day phase. This is my hang up with all of this. It makes perfect logical sense to me for him to have protected Dadd by not shooting Miko.

Timmah @ 20/1/2016 17:13

Ari @ 20/1/2016 9:35 Timmah @ 20/1/2016 16:30 Curtis, Vic and now Ari have gone out of their way to protect JC. To the point where my gameplay has been "filtered" to suit their goal of doing so. Just pointing that out Please explain this to me: "But do you think scum JC would be so careless as to take the whole decision into his own hands? He could have easily started a discussion going, everyone would pile together a list of people and then he would avoid shooting one of his scum buddies that where on that list. It would have been very easy for scum JC to look diplomatic in his decision and yet save a scum buddy." As for this, I understand what you are saying, I really do. I have the benefit of having played these games with JC for a long time though. If he'd "asked everyone else" to tell him who to shoot, several of us would've known right away that he's scum, because he simply doesn't operate that way. Looking at it this way is also a legit WIFOM argument. I don't pretend to know what goes on in people's head when they make these decisions. But, here is where I am stuck. Let's say he did this: that compiled list from everyone would've read: Miko, Dadd, Herm. Because, those were the 3 candidates for lynch at that exact time. Miko was the clear lynch based on Pat's scan, but Dadd and Herm (also based on Pat's scan) were close behind. In this situation, if I am scum, I know that if I shoot Miko as I should, then the odds of Dadd being the lynch that day are extremely high. Thus, mafia would've lost 2 members in the span of a single day phase. This is my hang up with all of this. It makes perfect logical sense to me for him to have protected Dadd by not shooting Miko.

Ill take your word for it on the meta part.

Cant really judge what kind of player JC is with the limited games we have played.

Maybe my vision is clouded by how I would have played it as scum.

ahoda @ 20/1/2016 9:48

Angi @ 20/1/2016 9:04 I have a hard time not buying the Miller claim because it happened to me last game. I want really badly to believe Herm. But I suck at scum finding so he probably is scum and pulling the wool over my eyes. I also agree with the cult theory, Zombie Sophie is probably going to bite everyone lol Last game has no bearing on this game

I know that. I'm saying that because I was Miller and people didn't believe me........I tend to be protective of the role now lol. It's not about the game it's about my geelings.

Ari @ 20/1/2016 9:43

Timmah @ 20/1/2016 16:40 Ari @ 20/1/2016 9:19 Scum tend to have opinions to lynch Town. Ive stated the reasons why I think the targets you picked today are town. So you havnt had 10 minutes over the past week to sit down and write who you suspect / dont suspect? Very busy man! We would learn some info about the people who want to lynch you and those who dont. Hold on, so based on your first sentence here, you basically are saying that your entire reason for thinking that I'm scum is because I am going after JC? Because on D2, I definitely went after Miko, who we know was not town. Continue reading. Mostly because you have been very much tunneling on JC. Maybe tell us who else you suspect and wouldnt mind lynching?

I am not going to deny that I'm tunneling, but I am also not going to abandon my top scum read.

Here is who I suspect right now:

JC - obvs.
Vic - from D2, even more if JC is scum, and he seems to be "trying hard" without getting pinned in a corner; but, really really from D2 after analyzing that
Badger - from D2, though I don't recall a lot of the rest of his game
Wikey - from D2, and general lurking

Curtis - especially if JC is scum, but also because Dadd's final list of scum reads was : Curtis, im317, FC, Bryce - at least one of those is mafia (FC flipped town and Bryce has soft claimed, leaving only 2 candidates imo)
im317 - see reasoning above from Dadd's "scum list"
brian - general lurking
Jay - lurking mostly until he was called out today

Ari @ 20/1/2016 10:41

I am also a bit worried on Angi´s claim just because its so very easy to fake. Not that it proves anything but ive seen a lot of filler posts from her and in most of her analyzing posts it doesnt seem to feature any definitive attacks. Just a bunch of maybes. Would like to hear from her more about who she suspects and wants to lynch.

I gave my views yesterday

Curtis @ 20/1/2016 10:42

Can't we tell Angi to lynch someone (with no one else lynching her) and then see if her vote counts at the end of the day? (:

Great idea. Herm........unlynch please

Dont want to lynch:
Vernon
Bryce
Herm
Wikey
im317
Timmah

Middle ground:
Ahoda
Curtis
Angi
Vic

Targets in my mind:
Brian
Badger
JC
Jay


Feel more comfortable with keeping im317, Timmah and Herm after reviewing day 2 in action.

Angi needs to do what Curtis suggested.

Ahoda, Vic and Curtis FEEL town to me but I dont see any evidence suggesting it. They seem to be genuinely trying to figure stuff out but they could just be playing well as scum!

Brian hasnt said anything game related all game. Hard to get a read on that.

Badger has seemed to me that he is trying to figure stuff out but his track record is too bad to be in the middle group. Some people have been tunneling on him for a while so his flip will tell us something.

Timmah seems to have a better feel for JC than I do. Guess I am not so against lynching him as I was at the start of the day.

Jay ive talked about a lot today! First day he is participating in really. Thats a positive at least. Would like to hear more from him regarding other players but he doesnt seem to want that. :)

After re-analyzing D2, I am much more comfortable with Herm's claim of miller.

I forgot that Bryce indicated that his role gives him a reason to think Brian is town. He also said that his role gave him a reason to think Merc was not town, so I dunno. Bryce's whole game has seemed strange to me, but I can't just ignore his repeated soft claims - well, maybe I can, I will have to see how he plays it from here.