- Oddly, I think Dudley's are now the ones I'm most certain aren't a lie since they match up so closely to guesses I've made.
- Maxime might not be 100% honest with her guesses, but i don't think she's lying about what is right and what isn't. Some of her guesses reveal very little or overlap too much with others so she might not be revealing everything she knows. But i doubt she's misleading me.
- It would be very risky for Fred to give me wrong information because he has no idea what I know already and I might be able to instantly know he's lying if he tried to mislead.
- I kind of jumped on Lily when we had an hour of cross-tribal talk today. She wasn't allowed to talk to Angelina at the time and she gave me a response right away of her most recent guess. I've gotten her guesses directly from her and they don't seem crazy so I instinctively want to trust them but can't be sure.
- I only know about Angelina, Snape, Newt and Amos' guesses through Angelina running around sharing her guesses and telling people what other people guessed. Very possible that either Angelina is lying or someone is
lying to Angelina.
Doing a lot of process of elimination stuff here trying to figure out where to go next and who is the dirty liar. Don't think ill go around asking for guesses on my tribe - I've already asked too many people and its hard to keep track of what I've told to who already.
Following the path of ignoring everything Angelina conveyed to me, 8490167 looks like the right answer, but that would mean Angelina told me incorrect things on 3 occasions and I can't really believe that someone would be crazy enough to think they'd get away with that.
Snape just threw like 10 guesses at me all of which apparently had 0 correct answers and most of which seemed to just be coming straight from the Angelina rumour mill so IDK how to react to it tbh.
All it tells me is that Angleina and Snape were obviously sharing a lot of info. And I know that even though Angelina made a lot of noise about disliking Snape early on.
I spent 4 hours going through all possible scenarios and I have come to the conclusion that more than one guess I've been told has been a malicious lie
This is a thing now, we voted out Dudley, we got split up, but I still want to work with this group if I can.
NEW TRIBE
I don't like this tribe.
No one here has been on my tribe all the way through the game
My two closest allies are definitely over on the other side (FRED & MAXIME).
There's no easy boot.
Snape picked it so I can't run around getting the people who Snape picked to vote out Snape.
Snape is on this tribe.
BUT this tribe should be good at challenges (Amos, Snape and I have got to be the biggest challenge beasts, maybe Newt too and Ron is such a newbie that he actually tries his hardest every challenge). I'm SHOCKED we haven't had a double tribal yet and that's making the game seem relatively slow (only 4 boots in a week and a half), so if that's up next it could be a rough round. But if it's another tribe immunity challenge, hopefully we can make it to merge unscathed and I won't have to suck up to Snape and Amos too much.
PEOPLE
I like him, but he's my least close relationship from my old tribe. Pretty sure he wants to work with snape and they probably made an unbreakable vow or some shit because draco is the only one that Snape isn't always an asshole to.
Guarantee Amos was the first choice of Snape. They're tight and they're both kinda hard to talk to. But good at challenges and hopefully I'm still okay with both of them.
Goodness I keep forgetting this guy exists. He's gonna float so far.
Oh ron, such a newbie, but trying so hard. I think he'll be a bit unpredictable and too much of an oversharer, and I bet he'll eventually go down when he tries to pull a big post-merge move and gets exposed.
I'm a fish
Hilariously at war with Ron. Our chats logs are not to be shared in polite company, but suffice to say he's a shallow shadow of the Hagrid-Fish romance that was promised. He loves me publically and is sketchy af towards everyone privately and is addicted to TMI in the group chat (more below).
OH MY GOD. I'm trying so hard but when he greets me with this what am I supposed to think? He's like trump in that you eventually just have to trust that sometimes he means what he says when he goes off on rants on twitter. If I trust Snape, it means I believe him when he repeatedly says he wants to vote me out. And if I don't trust Snape then I don't trust him and why am I allied with him.
HUFFLEPUFF IDOL
I feel pretty in trouble on this one. I spent way too long double checking errors and there's no way I've only been told one incorrect answer. I'm gonna have to assume that the Snape-Angelina intel I've gotten is where the inaccuracies are because they're the sketchiest people at idol guesses and they don't overlap a ton with anyone other than each other (plus I know they are lying to me about which specific guesses they submitted, which is pretty fair game, but still sketchy).
TEA
Gilderoy bravely talks in tribe chats.
Ron bravely talks in DMs
PLANS
I just want to make it to merge and forget this tribe ever existed. Would prefer to just win challenges but with Ron attacking Gilderoy already and Snape/Amos probably looking to get a group together with maybe newt/draco/me Gilderoy MIGHT be an easy out. But I know this group is a lot more worried about my idol and that's probably deservedly so, so I expect there might at least be an attempt to flush the idol out if we lose.
Top graph ^ assumes Dudley, Fred and Maxime were truthful in the guesses they gave me.
Bottom graph on the same page assumes Lily is also truthful.
Thus, when ignoring the entire Angelina rumour network (guesses supposedly from Angelina, Snape, Amos and Newt), I can narrow the possibilities down to
8493767
and
8490167
If the right answer is 8493767, one of the Angelina guesses is a lie.
If the right answer is 8490167, one of Newt's guesses is a lie, as well as one of Angelina's, one of Snape's, and a mystery (probably Amos) guess. That would be a pretty absurd # of lies.
