hi EVERY1! its ur boy Zach Bisson here to be a good PW and give u some thoughts

Aparecium:

- draco is boring so far i dont care about him and i think people dont like him. p sure he was Dave in Enchanted and I didn't rly fuck with Dave so I hope he gets voted out soon.
- dudley?? who?
- fred is really good i don't believe he's a newbie because i refuse to believe that anyone with a really good grasp on these games from the beginning is a newbie
- i legitimately forgot maxime was in the game because i'm pretty sure not a single person has mentioned her in their confessionals like at all
- mirabella is amazing probably my fave in the game i don't rly understand her (them?) but the confessionals are really good and i can see her (them????!?!?!) being a strong presence later on

i can't predict who would go on this tribe because 60% of them are flops

rictumsepra

- every time i have played with Cormac he has been incredibly dry socially but it seems like ppl are liking him a little bit more here. i dont have any insight on his game because i refuse to read his confessionals i dont have the attention span to deal with in-character confessionals but i think that he is probably low on the totem pole here
- lily is amazing and she might actually be too pure for this game but that doesn't stop me from wanting her to continue on and succeed. i think she might be doomed this round just because on a small tribe of 5 at the first swap TC (esp. this early in the game) people are going to keep the peace and not want to make waves but she seems like a charming one so hopefully she can dig herself out of this.
- lockhart is rly good every time ive played with Don I have seen him be like a really good social player and everyone wanted to eat the dingleberries out of his asshole so it's fun to see him playing a lil bit more of a chaotic game? but he still has the social graces that he always has and it seems like he is p well received in spite of his sarcasm
- rita is a mess but that's what i expect from Cody in any game (see: Crabbe's signature on the board) and i think he's starting to rub ppl the wrong way but he's getting really lucky in the sense that he has a couple of buffer boots in Lily and Cormac
- ron had a bad start but i think things are picking up for him. he is close with Lockhart and I don't think they'll turn on each other so if Lily goes this round there's almost no chance he will go anywhere if they lose again before a swap

Lily is probably the boot here this round unless Rita continues to be sketch or Lockhart has a change of heart (lol) on Cormac but the day is still young so we'll see

serpensortia

- amos hasn't given much in terms of content but i do like his strategy of doing all the same number bc that would have been my guessing strategy too. not too much opinion on him in other ppls confessionals tbh
- angelina is angelina, she's kinda messy but people like her enough to not want her gone immediately. i can see her game crumbling at some point
- minerva has been getting some positive SPV here and there and seems to be pretty UTR
- pomfrey was a social standout pre-tribes and on original tribes but has been dealt a pretty bad hand here. i think she will be able to dig herself out hopefully and even if she can't i think there's only one more round in this swap if i remember correctly? so i think that if she can get herself literally anywhere but here she will be ok
- snape is just a very typically Nav performance. i have grown an appreciation for Nav's gameplay through watching him as opposed to playing with him and I see that the feelings Noah had towards Seb are the same as the feelings people tend to have towards Nav in these things. he's antagonistic and troll-y for the fun of it and probably because he's played 100 of these. i definitely see him making it to another swap

this tribe is hard to predict just because Pomfrey seems to be clearly on the bottom but there's a good chance she will dig her way out of it. I think that if I had to guess who would be one rung higher than Pomfrey on the totem pole and probably the scapegoat target it would be Amos