WOW, do I got a lot to tell you. So first off, let’s recap the second half of what ultimately became the Stacy boot. That vote was a complete clusterfuck, when it REALLY shouldn’t have been, and Caleb ultimately made the call to shift the target last second again, as he did with the JP vote. This time it was because of idol paranoia - probably unjustified, because neither Jonas nor Stacy have been particularly active, but better safe than sorry I guess.
But Jaclyn and Kelly hit me up a bit before the vote, and something seems...off. They’re talking to me about shifting the landscape of the game, but it almost came off like, “something’s gotta happen, are you with us?” I was half convinced they had an idol, and to be honest I wonder if my hesitation delayed a possible idol play. The rational part of me is like, no, if they had an idol they would have played it regardless of my consent. But something in my gut feels off - I feel like we avoided a near cataclysm, what with the late reveal and apparent multiple tallies. I can’t put my finger on it, but my spidey sense is tinglin’.
Literally me.
(Quick break: Caleb told me to say I love him in this. Caleb I love you. <3)
But ultimately, Stacey went home as planned, everything was good, yada yada yada.
Now, a big reason for all the idol paranoia was, well, a new idol was put into the game. We hunted for it in the 6 person alliance chat, and at the time I thought Rudy got it, because during the search he took the time to write a detailed PW post in the game I’m hosting. Anyway, Rupert led the charge, but ultimately Sue ended up getting it. Not that she told anyone - Rudy funnelled it Caleb and I. Now that I write this I wonder if Rudy’s saying this to cover for actually having it, might need to consider that, but for now I’ll take him on his word.
Once again, once I saw them hop on the board, knowing they would find it anyway, I immediately went to Jaclyn and Kelly like OMG CHECK THE BOARD IDOL CLUE and gave them the link and whatnot. It’s a little thing, but every little thing you can do to affirm a partnership, y’know?
Anyway, on to the meat and potatoes of this confessional. I had to reaffirm with Jaclyn multiple times that yes, I’d have the numbers this round. So, I went to Rudy in private, and later talked to both him and Caleb in the groupchat, about taking out Sekou this round. My argument was basically, the minority is tantalizing, and we’re all threats in our own ways - if we don’t act aggressively and set the pace, someone’s gonna use them against us instead. Yeah, we seem to have a good thing going, but we can’t underestimate the capacity of anyone - I’d rather make a move too early then make one too late.
Caleb seemed rather on the fence about it, supporting both our arguments, but Rudy was firmly against it. He argued that only an IDIOT would feel insecure enough in their position to use the minority when we only had a 6-4 advantage. He said he’d do whatever we want, which is his go to in tough decision making (and smartly so), but I don’t want to force him into any decisions - that could spend social capital I’m not ready to do at this point in the game. Maybe Rudy’s right, maybe I’m overthinking it.
So, I’m already telling Jaclyn that it's probably gonna be Jonas, they don’t seem to want to do it this round (which is now gonna be a headache) in the name of honesty - I don’t want to alienate the minority in case they do make a move. However, today Caleb comes to Rudy and I with some interesting information.
Rupert wants to make a move. Against Rudy and I. This round. Here’s a delightful little quote I saw:
See: Matty’s vindication.
Now, this is in theory, a bit of a tough decision. Because y’know, in Survivor, when someone says your name, that doesn’t necessarily mean you go right for them - the pace of the game is a delicate thing, and if you go RIGHT for someone just because they said your name, you could end up costing yourself the game in the long-run. But, I wanted to make a move this round anyway, and now Rupert’s giving me carte blanche to do exactly that against him.
You know what the hilarious thing is? Even though he hadn’t been messaging me a ton, I still trusted him, at least more than Sekou. I mean, look at my bootlist, look at me throwing and saving his ass. But if he wants me out? Game on Rupert. Let’s see how well your extended disappearing act will help you now.
Just a stray thought: thinking about Sue and her personality, and who in the ORG world acts like that, I'm kinda wondering if she's Veronica. (Crystal from Warriors, Amanda Z. from Epic.) It'd explain her connection with Rudy (Ted.) Just something that occurred to me, nothing I'm acting on or anything - God knows I'm awful at figuring out actual alias'.
So, y’know, I got to thinking. With the information I currently have, where am I slated to place in this game? And like, thinking about it...I really don’t feel super comfortable in my spot.
I mean, if everyone was happy to walk down to the end unified, picking off stragglers, I’d be golden. I’m very confident I’m in the Top 3 of activity, and I think if I get to FTC, I have a good shot at winning. But here’s the thing - I’m having a lot of trouble envisioning my path.
Matty has improved over Dave in God knows how many ways, but one thing Dave always had was, he wasn’t on people’s radars. And I thought I was doing a decent job of hiding behind Caleb and to an extent Rudy. But with the revelation that, if everything went according to Rupert’s plan, I’d be out in 9th...I feel like I haven’t downplayed my abilities enough. I’m right up there in terms of activity, and people have taken note.
That’s not something I can really hide, I’m always gonna have trouble making it past this specific portion of the game, but I’d thought placing enough meatshields in front of me would have done the trick. But I feel like Rudy’s one upped me - I always wanted to be the third man on the totem pole in the alliance, from the insiders perspective, but right now I feel like I’m coming off as a leader or maybe as a number two to Caleb. Like, Final 10 is NOT when I want people to start discussing my name - Final 8, Final 7, sure, it’s to be expected, my mid-game is where I always where I’m gonna run into issues. But this is too early. *sigh*
And like, here’s what I know:
1. I have an idol. Woo neat cool awesome, that’s all fine and dandy, but it’s just one round of immunity.
2. Sue has an idol. This is DEEPLY DEEPLY concerning. Yeah, she told me about it, so presumably she wants to work with me for a few more votes - but like, what is she gonna do with that idol? You can use an idol two ways - defensively and offensively She’s not gonna use it to try and stay alive, she has to be aware that her goat status will reduce her target. So, what’s her other option? Eliminate a power player, and she’s super tight with Rudy.
It doesn’t necessarily give her leverage in the game, because she’s effectively playing for, at best, 2nd or 3rd place, at least given the dynamics at the moment - but who it does give power is Rudy. Rudy is in the majority of the current power alliance, he has a strong connection with everyone in it minus one person, and he has nigh the only connection with someone ELSE in it. Like, no one else talks to Sue - why are we NOT worrying about this? Also...
3. It is quite likely that Rudy himself ALSO has an idol, the other one found early on. So, assuming the worst, and that he indeed has another idol, Rudy’s in a MONSTROUSLY powerful position. He has the deepest connection with the biggest goat, assuring some loyalty from her to him over similar power players, he has access to her idol, he has access to his OWN idol, and he’s not even the guy getting immediate heat from Rupert - I AM. If things go the way they’re going right now, Rudy will be your winner - and I’d be OK with that, if I can’t win, but that option is quite tantalizing, by the by.
So what do I do? Well, it’s tricky. Rupert has already confirmed he’s coming for me in the short-term, and even if I somehow saved him, that’d always been in the back of my mind - short-term threats are just as important as long-term ones, especially ones that have the capacity to go from the former to the latter. So, as cool as it would be to be like, “Rupert take this idol and play it, we’re taking out Rudy” that ultimately undoes a lot of the work I’ve built up until this point. Besides the fact, I’m still unsure of whether or not I want to go the end with Rudy (and Caleb) - yeah I wanna win, but that’s also a pretty cool story.
But, when you think about it, a big nexus of Rudy’s power is his control over Sue, which is insane when you consider her seeming non-entity status. Having Sue in this game gives Rudy a vote, an idol, and a goat, all in one neatly wrapped package - the longer she stays in this game, the worse it is for me. If Sue was out of the picture, Rudy doesn’t become this infallible figure - he becomes an individual playing the game - a good fucking game, but not an unbeatable one. So, if I want to have long-term legs in this game, the easiest solution is, remove Sue.
Of course, that brings its own host of problems. First off, when exactly do I wanna try pulling this off? If it’s not soon enough, I’m making it trickier and trickier to work around, especially if the minority's numbers continue to dwindle - they’re the free floating votes I need to use to make this happen. If I wanted to do it by myself, Final 9 is the trick - it could be as easy as a simple flip, and Sue’s out of the game at a time she doesn’t expect it, thus significantly reducing the risk of an idol play. The issue with that plan is, well, I’d piss a hell of a lot of people off - a vengeful Rudy is not something I want, especially with an idol in his pocket. And all the attention would be squarely on me, and with the numbers then at a theoretical 4-4, that’s not what I’d want. Good job at 8th place, Matty.
My other option is, flip with someone else. I’d have two options: Caleb and Sekou. Sekou always seems deeply hesitant to shake the board all that much, so I’d probably go to Caleb. Caleb is always ready to make moves, and in a vacuum I think he’d be fine with booting Sue for the reasons I’ve outlined - the issue is, emotions. I feel somewhat confident that I’m closer to Caleb than Rudy is, being together the whole damn game has PERHAPS had a bit of an effect - but it’s not a 100% thing. If Caleb tells Rudy or Sue, she idols, and I’m a likely idol target.
So, I feel like I need to start prepping him. A nudge here or there - what are we doing with Sue long-term, she doesn’t talk to us, etc. I think it’d be better to avoid saying it gives Rudy a direct advantage, and more say that it gives us a disadvantage, and if we want us to be the F3, we need to be on a level playing field. Or something along those lines. Moving with Caleb also opens the timeline up a bit - I could move at F8 without needing to use my idol to make the play, and it avoids the issues of giving the minority too much power. My major concern would Sue feeling a need to idol, in which case, again, decent chance I’m going - but it’s the type of power play I’d need to make. If it worked, at F7 my options are wide open, and even if I appear as a threat, my number becomes very important for certain people’s games, and I’d in theory have my idol.
Of course, this is all working off the ideal route - assuming Rupert goes without a hitch this round, and say Jonas the next round. With all those auction prizes out there, there’s no knowing for CERTAIN that it’d work - I could be typing this all up before a 10th place finish, which would be both fucking hilarious and fucking tragic. And I’d have to convince the minority to go with ME, rather than any other individuals who have plans of their own - so my management of them needs to be top notch. I’m gonna work on some ideas to plant this seed ahead of time, maybe spread that Sue has an idol, but it’s gonna be tricky. Flipping a lot like this is REALLY dangerous - God knows it catches up to Alexis half the time she plays. People are always wary of someone trying to play the Tony Vlachos game - I guess I just need to present a genial enough front, or SOMETHING. Managing perception is a tricky and underrated skill in ORGs.
Man, I’m having a ton of fun this game, cause the dynamics are insanely fun to think about - even if they’re a fucking headache at the same time. I actually have other stuff to write about, but I need to focus on my actual essay and not the ones I’m writing for an ORG, and besides that stuff doesn’t really fit with the tone of this particular confessional - but trust me, more coming this round. Especially if things don’t go smooth with the Rupert vote.
