LMAO JESUS CHRIST KILBY CALM DOWN.

Literally the whole Utren alliance thinks Jay has some sort of advantage now and are freaking out, except Jayden. Jayden knows Jay is just fucking with them. Kilby is FREAKING out still and now Jenn and Harrison believe it to be true as well. Joey doesn't seem to believe it as much.

Kilby fell right into that holy shit.

Michael Vicario @ 31/5/2018 19:19

Literally the whole Utren alliance thinks Jay has some sort of advantage now and are freaking out, except Jayden. Jayden knows Jay is just fucking with them. Kilby is FREAKING out still and now Jenn and Harrison believe it to be true as well. Joey doesn't seem to believe it as much. Kilby fell right into that holy shit.

So far this season I haven’t really liked jay at all but him just fucking around and doing this this, and it working hilariously has put him into my top 5 left in this game 😂🙌.

Kurtis Roddewig @ 31/5/2018 1:58

Oops never mind. Finally touched base with Jayden and Kilby's going to die :-)

Episode title please

Dan Kilby @ 31/5/2018 14:07

Update: I have somehow gotten Jayden to be ALL IN on getting Dustin out. My luck is going to run out any day now, but for now, life is swell.

These are definitely my favorite opposing confessionals this season.

This is in the chat that Kilby made with their alliance minus Jayden:

[5/31/18, 10:34:25 PM] Dan Kilby: okay so I taked to Jayden today or yesterday night or something i dont remember - APparently he talked to Jay, and now hes scared and thinks everyone views him/dustin as a duo - dustin is apparterently talking to Vecher about him like hes a rat - Jayden heard that and seemed VERY angry at dustin. I imagine we are good with him in the WCC? be suspicious but i think hes trustworthy lol
[5/31/18, 10:34:45 PM] Dan Kilby: i hope that explanation makes sense
[5/31/18, 10:36:13 PM] sojoeyslike: Dustin is calling Jayden a rat to old vecher?
[5/31/18, 10:36:26 PM] Dan Kilby: like his own personal rat sorta thing
[5/31/18, 10:36:33 PM] Dan Kilby: like a leak
[5/31/18, 10:36:50 PM] sojoeyslike: Ohhhhh got it
[5/31/18, 10:37:19 PM] sojoeyslike: Dustin selling Adrianne out now poor Jayden lol
[5/31/18, 10:37:29 PM] Dan Kilby: right lmfao
[5/31/18, 10:39:45 PM] Harrison Trenh: dustin is doing people dirty lmao


Jayden is doing a really good job at just straight up duping his tribe. His plan is to make them think him and Dustin aren't that close and that he wants Dustin out when in reality its the complete opposite. Personally I think its too early for Jayden to make any sort of move like that but if he wants to go for it then it seems like he'll be able to completely fool Utren.

Kilby is not having a good round so far falling for everyone's shit that is being fed to him.

Entertainment wise? This is funny as hell.

Game wise: this is really really bad for Jayden’s game. It’s pre-mature and doesn’t make sense.

Yeah, he's even said in his confessional maybe he's being kind of petty over not being included in the group chat Kilby made. He's playing more with his heart than anything right now. Kilby still trusts him 100% - for now. Flipping is more of a F8 type thing in my opinion.

i'm tired but kilby's production chat freaking out about jay's advantage, hilarious

#teamjay

but more importantly..

#teamlana

Sam Loveridge @ 31/5/2018 22:43

i'm tired but kilby's production chat freaking out about jay's advantage, hilarious

Jay is the best. I was in tears reading those dm's between Jay and Kilby. Like, in what world does it make sense for Jay to tell Kilby ANYTHING?! Am I missing something?
I was waiting for Jay to just pop off on Kilby--but he handled it well and clearly got under Kilby's skin.

I'm gonna attempt a quick little "power ranking" at this point--more or less ranked from who I think is least likely to most likely to win at this point. Or like, who has the least to the most win equity IMO. So, here we go:

11. Mike--I pretty much have Mike penciled into final tribal, which makes it even crazier that I think he has the least amount of win equity rn. I don't think he's drawing dead entirely...but it would probably take a bitter jury to award Mike the win.

Honestly, from a pure strategic gameplay pov, I think Mike has played alright. He's shown he can be a trusted ally if given the opportunity. He's rubbed a lot of people the wrong way, which is the main reason why he has an uphill climb to winning the game.

10. Kilby--Part of this is knowing what may transpire this round, but another part is just not being able to really envision a path for Kilby to make ftc. I don't think there's a single person (maybe Jenn?) on Utren who hasn't contemplated going after Kilby at some point b/c he's so obviously been the shot caller and focal point of Utren. Jayden is just the first who is willing to take the shot.

Kilby has been such a character to watch--the literal definition of CP, where one second he's going in-depth on strategy and discussing the social psychology of Survivor, and the next he's professing his love for his tribe mates on a really personal level. It's so wild...I'm glad Kilby is in this game, but it seems fitting for him to go out in the Scully first juror spot.

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities for Kilby to go on the win the game...like if he somehow idols correctly or wins immunity (b/c given the challenge i'm sure a good number of people will win it) this round, he could suddenly not be the target..maybe?

9. Jay--Again, one of our biggest characters this season and someone I hope lasts for a while; but, I think Jay has a tough road ahead. Even if Jayden flips to Vecher, I still think Jay will be perceived as a very smart and and threatening player. And I don't know that anyone truly wants to take Jay to the end with them, b/c he has played a solid game up to this point.

Jayden flipping definitely would give Jay some breathing room here, but he needs to connect with the Utren people to really have a fighting chance...Vecher people have already shown their willingness to play their own game.

I think Jay's best shot is getting close enough to the end where he wins the last few challenges...

8. Gibby--I've been very impressed with Gibby's game since the Sarena boot. He's been relatively calm and rational in his decision making. Maybe that's more due to his personal happenings, i'm sure he's understandably dealing with LIFE first and therefore we haven't gotten as much insight into Gibby's gameplan...

But it doesn't seem like anyone is actively targeting Gibby and I think he could end up an important player in this merge game. If he can avoid blowing up when things don't go his way, I don't see why Gibby can't find his way to the end-game. And if he makes FTC I'm sure he'll have a good story to tell.

7. Jayden--This is under the impression that Jayden plans to flip to Vecher this round. Jayden has played so well and been super impressive to this point, but I sorta think the move would come too soon. I don't doubt that he could vote out Kilby and then regain some trust from the WCC/Utren people, but it's going to make his road to the end much more difficult. Plus, I think the move only paints the picture of a Jayden/Dustin duo even more. And I don't think Vecher people have any reason to stay totally loyal to Jayden.

Regardless, I really appreciate Jayden's tenacity and pro-active gameplay. I hope he can keep hustling and just finding a way to survive, but I'm ultimately scared he could be peaking too early.

6. Dustin--Dustin is certainly in a precarious position now, where most of Vecher seems to dislike him very much and seemingly wouldn't vote for him to win...but all-in-all I don't think Dustin is in a bad position. Kurtis was fairly complimentary of Dustin's decision to secure his own safety. And there's plenty of time to regain favor from the other Vecher peeps.

Adrianne leaving in theory should make Dustin less threatening to Utren, but at the same time he could be linked to Jayden moving forward. But then if Jayden suddenly gets targeted for making this move against Kilby, I think Dustin could again wind up in more of a free agent role.

Dustin is strong socially, and I think his placement variance at this point in the game is wider than anyone's. He could leave in a few days or he could go on to win the game.

5. Alex--It's crazy that Alex has such a good chance to make ftc, but he's just so non-threatening. I don't even think he knows what his path to the end is, but it just feels inevitable that Alex will go far in this merge and end up with a real chance of winning.

Someone said it in their confessional recently, but Alex gets looped in on things and is fairly likable. He needs to start building more of a resumé eventually, but sometimes just being a likable underdog is enough too.

4. Joey--He's played a very effective UTR game so far...but I think Joey needs to do more if he's going to win. Joey's been super patient and making the logical moves to stick with a majority alliance. At a certain point I think he needs to hit the switch and make some more pro-active decisions. Otherwise he could get to the end and people will just think Joey went with the flow the whole time.

The relationship with Gibby could be key to making the end, though I don't see a definite path for Joey at this juncture. People like Kurtis seem to know how good of a player Joey is too...but it's for that reason why you have to give him a lot of equity to win.

3. Harrison--I think Harrison's game is a lot like Joey's, except Harrison might be a bit more unassuming or underestimated, which is why he has a great shot at making ftc and winning. People don't realize how intelligent and game-savvy Harrison is, especially noticeable in confessional.

Working against Harrison is that he doesn't have a clear #1 ally, and he's someone ringing the bell super hard for Utren to stick together with no clear plan of when to take out the big players on Utren. Still, I think a Kilby blindside could be the kick in the pants Harrison needs to start slitting throats and really getting his hands dirty in this game.

And if Harrison does make the end, I think he is received.

2. Kurtis--Things just seem to keep working out for Kurtis. His social game has allowed him to stay out of harms way and always have an option to survive and advance. He hasn't exactly controlled much beyond the Anders blindside, but I think Kurtis has been okay taking a backseat and trying to regain better footing.

Kurtis definitely has all the ability to make the end and win...the key to that might be sureing a F2 with Mike. His downfall could ultimately just be that he becomes such a threat to win that he has to be taken out...but I think there's enough shields or bigger targets that Kurtis can slide by round after round.

And if Kurtis makes FTC, he's very well-spoken and would articulate his game well.

1. Jenn--She's just playing such an awesome game. It's lowkey, but effective. Kilby potentially leaving would be a tough blow, leaving Jenn a bit vulnerable without a shield in Kilby, but I'm confident she can recover and look elsewhere for allies and alliances.

People seem to still totally respect her ability and her Conquest win, but it just seems like people are going to wait until it's too late. I don't see the scenario where Jenn leaves anytime soon...though she might run into trouble in the end-game, just being so likable and a threat to win the game.

Anyway...

I did not expect to write so much. Feel free to agree/disagree. This is obviously totally subjective on my part.

I'm excited for this merge though b/c I truly feel everyone left has at least a shot at winning.

The Utren people going far entirely depends on what happens his round with Kilby I think. He holds them all together and I could see them faltering if it happens

I think Joey has the best awareness of anyone left in the game. He knows Utren isn't strong and Kilby and Jayden will go head to head soon - he probably doesn't realize how soon though

I also think Jayden is making this move against Kilby slightly earlier than he should. I think he should wait a round or two, when the rest of Utren is more likely to be super cracked, that way he's not betraying ALL of his allies for people he just met a couple days ago. I get wanting to make moves to pad your end game resume but he's being short sighted in this one