ADRIANNE
I'm honestly really glad about the way things went down with the last challenge because it allowed Adrianne to see that she wasn't actually doing as bad as she thought she was with that puzzle, and that she was actually pretty much on par! I think that getting the puzzle done with Rob was a big confidence booster for her and she's definitely getting better at ORG challenges. Adrianne's had a super big episode - I think she has positioned herself in a perfect spot to where she can comfortably slip in and out of alliances without getting a lot of blame. one thing Adrianne does in every game she plays which I'm so consistently impressed by is managed to get roped into majority alliances that don't think of her as a big target, which allows her to plot and slit throats when she needs to. she finds herself as the center of pretty much everything on her tribe because everyone thinks they need to "bring her in" to alliances, when in reality she's got alliances with half of them already going. she was in a fun spot for the Blinding Light thing because she was able to easily accept that immunity from Dustin without it blowing up her game because it looks like an olive branch being extended to her. it might be my bias shining through but I think she's in an amazing spot.

ALEX
Alex has definitely picked up the pace a little bit from the last episode but I still think he's getting left in the dust with a lot of the bigger more strategic players on the tribe. he's definitely falling under Anders' spell and if the brewing Kurtis vs. Anders rivalry comes to a head at some point, this could end poorly for Alex and he could find himself on the wrong side of the numbers. right now he's basically just expendable to pretty much everyone and the only person who seems to feel very strongly about his existence is Anders, which again, could end up being a curse. he organized the Triple A alliance with Anders/Adrianne which will probably be irrelevant in the grand scheme of things so I feel like he's just kinda existing for the moment.

ANDERS
I've never seen someone just... torpedo themselves so unbelievably fast? I had high hopes for Anders coming into the season and I talked a lot about how since he'd hosted like 5-6 seasons of Survivor Maryland that he would have some frame of reference of what to do (and more importantly what NOT to do!) but it seems like he's making some very rookie mistakes. I think he let the Blinding Light thing in round 1 go to his head which is silly because it didn't actually end up doing anything for him besides completely expose him. he's part of this big group with him/Dustin/Billy/Rob/Kurtis that is trying to "bring in Adrianne" even though both sides already have deals with her, but I just think that Anders is setting himself up to be blindsided before the merge. he has a stunning lack of self-awareness about his position on the tribe right now and I think he's made some fatal mistakes, especially in asking Adrianne to put him at the bottom of the list even though they'd already agreed on Kurtis hanging near the bottom. I think he's probably not long for this game, which is shocking.

BILLY
I gotta say, I don't really think I expected a whole lot out of Billy coming into this game? I thought he was mostly just playing because Sam sucked it into it and was either gonna not take it seriously or be purposefully crazy because he wouldn't care about whether he survived or not - but Billy has pleasantly surprised me so far. from what I've seen, his social game has been really good and he's been jumping on calls with people constantly, and he seems to just give off a really good vibe when I've observed Adrianne's calls with him. like I said last time, Billy gives off this vibe that he is shy at the beginning but then opens up to you, and I think this is very important because it won't make him look like a big conniving strategist, when in reality he has a pretty good grasp on the game. I think that he has positioned himself really well in the Kurtis/Rob/him group and that he won't be a person looked at to target once the numbers dwindle down.

DUSTIN
Dustin has kinda been on the DL a little bit but has a long road ahead of him. I think that through no real fault of his own he's being really closely associated with Anders, which could prove to be reaaaaaally bad for him. I hope that he has the foresight to see that Anders could be a sinking ship and explore his options with people like Adrianne, who I think he's gotten really close to. he ended up being the scapegoat choice to get the Blinding Light immunity this time and "reach out" to Adrianne by giving her immunity so he's kinda just part of this group of 6 that will implode eventually. if things go how Kurtis has talked about them going in his confessionals, once Mike/Julia are gone the 4 of Kurtis/Billy/Rob/Adrianne would take a stab at either Anders or Dustin and I think Dustin's best move here is just to lay low and continue letting Anders blow up and expose his own game.

JAY
Jay's not really a focal point of anything right now, but he's also not necessarily on the radar. he benefits right now from having the potentially easy Mike/Julia boots as fluff and hopefully time-fillers so other players can blow up their games and let Jay fly under the radar. I don't think he's necessarily playing the most smart strategic game right now, but there's definitely potential for a lot of puzzle pieces to pop into place and give him some longevity in this game if he plays his cards right.

JULIA
not really sure what the fuck is up with her! it's disappointing that somebody would come into this in like 4 games and prioritize some Tumblr shit over Endure, but it looks like she's gonna be removed, which won't do much to the current dynamics of Vecher but will definitely speed up the process of Vecher having to actually start playing the game, so I don't mind her being removed.

KURTIS
I'd say that on paper Kurtis is probably running this tribe. Kurtis has been playing these games for a long fucking time now and it shows in the way that he is so good socially and able to adapt to any situation. there definitely seems to be a war brewing beneath the surface between Kurtis and Anders (which I'm pretty sure I called in my pre-game write-ups, so Stu has to toot his own horn a little bit here!) and it's going to depend which of them tries to strike first. Kurtis is in a really great spot and as long as things go the way that he's been planning for them to go I see Kurtis going really far.

MIKE
I know people's reviews of Mike have been getting a little bit better in the recent days but I just don't understand him. in both his interview AND his first confessional he talked about how he has to play closed ID games so he's not targeted for his reputation but I just don't see how he could be a "social threat" in any game? like, he seems like a nice enough guy and I'm sure he's easy to get along with but it just seems like he's not putting in enough effort. Julia being evacuated will probably be bad for him because it makes him the easy scapegoat boot, and I think that he would've benefited from Julia showing up and getting voted out in a typical tribal, because it would allow him more time to find his footing. Mike will probably be the next boot if Vecher loses and Julia is removed.

ROB
p sure I said this in the last write-up I did but I love Rob's confessionals so much and he's so natural on camera! I know it's not that important but his little green screen effects make me super happy and he's the type of person whose confessionals don't bore me to tears. it's no surprise that Rob has found himself in a pretty good position here. he seems to be Kurtis' right-hand man - if Anders/Dustin are a power duo, Kurtis/Rob probably are one as well. I think he's in a good position to sit back and let the Kurtis/Anders war brew, but much like Dustin, Rob could suffer from getting caught in the crossfire. for now I think he should be a-okay and we'll have to see how things work out between Kurtis and Anders.

OVERALL TRIBE DYNAMICS
so... yeah. I think I pretty much touched on all of it in the individual write-ups but I think the tribe morale is pretty high right now with their sweep of Utren in the challenge. the main storyline right now is that this Kurtis/Billy/Dustin/Rob/Anders group exists and they're going to "bring in Adrianne" through Dustin giving her the Blinding Light immunity, but pretty much everyone talks in confessionals about how this group isn't gonna last. I'd like to see this group lose a couple of challenges because we obviously have Julia who will be kicked out and then Big Mike who is likely to be the next easy boot to keep the peace, but I think pretty soon we'll start seeing Kurtis and Anders make moves against each other. Anders talked in his interview about not liking other alpha personalities and I think that Kurtis just the alpha personality that Anders doesn't get along with, and could be Anders' downfall in this game.

POWER RANKINGS
#1. Adrianne (+2): once again, perhaps my bias is showing a little bit here. but Adrianne has managed to work the Blinding Light twist to her advantage, and by having a really good social game she finds herself in a position where all the different groups are fiending to work with her. I think she's in good with every single person on her tribe excluding Mike and Julia and so even though I don't think she's running the show right now, she's definitely in a good spot.
#2. Billy (+0): I'm keeping Billy in the #2 spot because I just don't see things turning in a way where he ever would go home on this tribe. much like Adrianne, he isn't necessarily in the driver's seat strategically, but he finds himself in the right place to get far and he doesn't have any visible target on his back at this point.
#3. Kurtis (+2): you might look at the dynamics of round 2 so far and think "why the fuck is Kurtis not #1 on the list? he's running the tribe!" and I, Stuart Callinan, would PROBABLY agree with you. but the only problem with Kurtis' game right now that puts him at #3 is that there's a lot of potential for things to blow up in his face. I think that tentatively with the way things are right now, Kurtis should be fine and will probably win this impending tug-of-war with Anders, but I have to bump him a little bit down here just for being in the spotlight so much and actually having the potential to go home at some point.
#4. Rob (+2): the only reason Rob wasn't higher up in the rankings last time was because he hadn't started making moves to get himself in strategically with people but he did that really well within the past 3 days. he is Kurtis' second-in-command and doesn't pose a major threat to anyone, as well as being such a fun presence socially.
#5. Dustin (-1): takes a step down in the rankings just based on his close association with Anders. this round basically was a subtle #AndersExposedParty between Kurtis/Billy/Adrianne/Rob and so I think Dustin sits in a better spot than Anders but still could be in a little bit of danger eventually.
#6. Anders (-5): oh, how the mighty fall. honestly, the only reason I'm keeping Anders up this high is because I feel like he's a big overbearing presence and that could discourage people from TRYING to make a move against him in the future. he definitely has fallen from grace within this tribe and doesn't seem to be aware of it at all, so I think there's a good shot of him going, but the thing that could save him is players like Jay/Alex being more "easy boots" to keep the tribe unity, but we'll have to see.
#7. Alex (+1): Alex still remains pretty much a non-factor, but he gets bumped up a ranking and sends Jay down a ranking just based on the fact that he's in this Triple A alliance with Anders and Adrianne. probably not very legitimate but it's something that Jay isn't doing.
#8. Jay (-1): interchangeable with Alex. isn't really in any solid alliances so far but isn't on anyone's radar. could be the easy boot after Mike if they decide they don't wanna risk things yet but it's not set in stone.
#9. Mike (+1): I had Big Mike at #10 last night after all the confessionals outlining everyone's plans to use Julia as a number but with Julia ghosting the game, it seems like the only number she'll be seeing is 19th.
#10. Julia (-1): Sam, you'd better be careful. if you evacuate her from the game she might hex your ass.

GIBSON
ok ok I'll give credit where credit is due - Gibson is actually stepping it up and seems to be playing a very different game than he plays in most games. I think that Sam already touched on this in a post but I definitely feel like his lack of connections allows for his reputation not to precede him and so now I think the ball will really be in his court in terms of this freedom that he doesn't always have in ORGs. the weirdest thing for Gibson this round was that it seems like everyone's associating him very closely with Sarena and I feel like his friendship with Sarena is a little bit one-sided? like he and Sarena definitely get along but she's got some negative stuff to say about him in confessionals. I think for right now he's okay and I think he can keep it cool for a while but we'll see if classic Gibson peeks out.

HARRISON
look, I like the guy a lot - but his confessional did NOT need to be 18 minutes. he talks so unbelievably slow and I think he just kept falling asleep during his long ass confessional. hopefully it's just because he had just woken up and not all of his confessionals will be like this but idk anyways. I think that Harrison has quietly put himself in a pretty good spot without having to do anything other than be likeable. it seems like Jacob still views Harrison as his secret #1 but Harrison has done a pretty good job of integrating with Kilby's little group and so Harrison will probably not be targeted soon at all. I think that based on what everyone's confessionals seem to say, Harrison is gonna end up falling into this Jenn/him/Kilby/Jayden group and I think that'll probably be better for him than going down with the Jacob ship.

JACOB
I said in my post during episode 1 that even though Kilby was probably a pretty big contender to completely go OTTN and fuck up his own game that Jacob also had a lot of potential for it, and I think he's definitely doing that. I think that if you wanted to compare Vecher to Utren right now, Jacob is the Anders of this tribe but without the Blinding Light victory. there's a ton of parallels between the two of them right now - most specifically, they're both live game hosts who have experienced different play-styles from their contestants, but seem to have taken the "what not to do" and ran with it as their strategies. a big problem with Jacob is that he DEFINITELY is overplaying, but is also getting faulted for a lot of things that aren't actually his own fault? Jacob talks in confessionals about how he thinks Sarena and Kilby are a power duo, but he is currently being perceived by the rest of the tribe as a power duo with Sarena and so he's kinda just falling into the role he's trying to put Kilby into. I think right now he's just not self-aware enough and Jayden has his sights set on a Jacob boot this round, so I think it will be important for Jacob to either tone it down and try to push for a simple Tony boot, or scoop up a number and try to cut Jayden early. I don't want this first vote to come down to a Jacob vs. Jayden thing because they're both good characters and I'd like to see it brew a little bit more but I think that it might boil over here.

JAYDEN
Jayden is still playing a really good game and he seems to be a smart, analytical guy, so I hope he takes a step back here and doesn't get tunnel vision on a Jacob boot. I understand that Jacob has been suuuuper sketchy (and specifically in Jayden's eyes based on information he's received) but I am afraid that if Jayden tries to make a move against Jacob here, it could be detrimental to his game. Jayden finds himself as sort of the ~right-hand man~ of Kilby, but in a weird way there's been a role reversal where Jayden is trying to call the shots. Jayden's biggest downfall this round could be trying too hard to protect Tony, who might not even have any allegiance to him. I don't think Jayden would be the boot this round because I think he's too well-connected with the numbers needed to take him out, but I hope he thinks through things a little bit more.

JENN
Jenn has definitely stepped it up a little bit and started playing better since the last write-up I did, which makes sense because she definitely tends to be kind of a slow burner. there's a lot of good insight in her long ass 17 minute confessional but most specifically I thought it was interesting that she has managed to identify the fact that Alex, Jay, and Dustin are probably all on the other tribe. I don't know if this will have any impact on anything but I'm impressed that she managed to clock the other tribe like that! her relationship with Kilby is becoming super beneficial to her and it seems like she's finally finding herself within a group. the biggest issue for Jenn here is that she just didn't have a very good start, and Jacob had his sights set on her from the very beginning, so it could cause issues for her this round if things go wrong.

JOEY
Joey said it best himself in his confessional - there are basically two pretty clearly defined sides here (Tony/Sarena/Gibson/Jacob and Harrison/Kilby/Jenn/Jayden) and Joey has his pick of where he wants to go, which is a very ideal position to be in early on in the game. the fun thing about this first vote for Joey is that regardless of what happens, I doubt he'll get any repercussions for it and will remain in a good position for a while. Joey is very woke and cautious of how people approach him now that he's in a swing vote position and so I think he's gonna make sure the best possible thing to happen for him works out. he seems to wanna target Tony based on his last confessional which would lead me to believe he wants to side with Harrison/Kilby/Jenn/Jayden but also based on Kilby's confessional, it could be difficult with Jayden being tunnel-vision'ed on a Jacob boot this round. Joey is a smooth talker and finds himself in a great position rn.

KILBY
I don't know how the fuck Kilby's brain runs as fast as it does but the kid is always fucking running scenarios and it is WILD! I think someone already said it in this thread but the fatal flaw in his game right now is that he talked in his confessional about how he's "trying to make sure people don't talk to each other", and as big of a Survivor fan as he is, I would think he'd know that everyone talks to everyone in Survivor. Kilby is treading a very thin line right now and he has his toes in both ~ponds~, with his DJS alliance with Sarena and Jacob as well as his bonds with Harrison/Jayden/Jenn. if the Vecher tribe storyline right now is a brewing war between Anders and Kurtis, the Utren storyline is a full-on World War between Jayden and Jacob, with Kilby being a United Nations peacemaker and trying to organize a treaty between the two of them. it'll be interesting to see how Kilby approaches this round - he talked about Tony being his ideal boot for the tribal but knowing that Jayden doesn't want that. Kilby says he doesn't want to push people to do things that would not be good for them but with Kilby's incessant paranoia, I don't see a scenario where he doesn't try to push his own agenda here.

SARENA
honestly NOT the best episode for Sarena. I think that she might end up finding herself on the wrong side of the numbers here but I don't think all hope is lost for her just based on the fact that everyone loves and adores her. right now she's in a bad spot through no mistakes of her own. she is being closely associated with Jacob, who is causing a shit-storm, and is constantly being lumped in with Gibson, who she doesn't even seem to like all that much. I think Jacob going might be a good thing for her because it would allow her to get away from the person accidentally painting a target on her back and continue to play the good social game that she knows how to play. I don't think she would've been in any danger had she not won Blinding Light immunity but I think she needs to get her shit together from here on out.

TONY
still haven't gotten a Tony confessional so it's hard to confirm his thoughts. that's very annoying because the way Joey's confessionals explain it, the sides are divided with Tony falling on the Andrew/Sarena/Jacob side, and it would be interesting to get his take on it and see if that's really the case. it seems like Jayden is pretty protective of him so he could definitely have a good relationship over there but it's really hard to say right now. I honestly think that this big ~war~ within the episode will boil down to everybody settling on an easy Tony boot for not being around as much but it's gonna come down to how much people overplay here.

OVERALL TRIBE DYNAMICS
again, I think that all the individual write-ups pretty much summarize it. this tribe is an absolute mess and the lines are very blurred and shifting every single second of every single day. the DJS alliance seems to be pretty much dead at this point, with Kilby not really trusting Jacob/Sarena and moving on to greener pastures. Joey is definitely the driving force behind what happens on this tribe and I think that wherever he chooses to go will shape the narrative for Utren for the remainder of the premerge. the Jacob/Jayden feud seems to be coming to a head quicker than the Anders/Kurtis one over on Vecher, but I'm not entirely convinced we'll see either of them leave this episode.

POWER RANKINGS
#1. Joey (+3): Joey takes a big jump up in the rankings this episode simply because there was no way I wasn't going to put him as number one. even though Joey didn't get Blinding Light immunity, he's the cool kid on the block. everybody wants + needs Joey in their alliances to make things happen and he fills the role here that Adrianne seems to be filling on Vecher.
#2. Jayden (+0): I'm keeping Jayden as #2. if we're comparing the Jacob/Jayden rivalry on Utren to the Kurtis/Anders one over on Vecher, I'd definitely say Jayden is the Kurtis and I think that means he'll have more longevity. like I already said, Jayden is an analytical guy and I don't think he's going to make this Jacob move too early if it means making his own game more difficult.
#3. Sarena (-2): this drop-down might be a little bit unfair because I don't think she's actually playing worse than she was 3 days ago, I just think that other people are really stepping it up. like I said, Sarena could end up on the wrong side of the numbers here but she seems to still be in a good spot just given her social connections and I think getting leverage for a Sarena vote any time soon would be next to impossible.
#4. Harrison (+3): he had as big of a jump as Joey but for a totally different reason. throughout episode 1 the narrative presented was that Harrison was Jacob's secret right-hand man and we never seemed to get a whole lot out of Harrison. now, throughout episode 2, we've seen Harrison make some better connections with Kilby and potentially even be willing to jump off of the Jacob train. when the alliances are discussed it seems like Harrison would fall in the Jenn/Kilby/Jayden category and so I need to see some content from him explaining his thoughts on it, but I think Harrison is another hot commodity over here.
#5. Kilby (-2): much like Sarena, Kilby didn't drop two spots by being a bad player. if anything, I think Kilby might've even become more self-aware this round about his overplaying in round 1 and tried to tone it down a little bit. I do just worry that with everything we've seen from Kilby so far, we could still see him fuck up his own position. allowing Jayden to take the reins here and make the decision for the tribal is an interesting move on Kilby's part and I'm surprised that his eye isn't twitching at the idea of someone else holding the power.
#6. Gibson (+0): still at a firm #6 here. I think that if a Jacob boot happens this round, Gibson could find himself on the chopping block in the coming rounds as Tony fades into the background, but if we get a Tony boot here, Gibson might find himself in a better spot while Jacob overplays and throws himself into the spotlight. it's hard to say with Gibson because I know he's smart but I just don't know how good of a shot he has.
#7. Jacob (-2): Jacob slides further down the leaderboard. I just think he's doing too much too fast and overthinking things to the point where it's annoying the fuck out of people. somehow, some way, he became Jayden's #1 target and as a result ended up being distanced from Kilby, and so I think his fate in the game right now comes down to a few different factors and it's not exactly looking SUPER good for him. even if it is a compromise Tony vote here, I think Jacob's days are numbered.
#8. Jenn (+1): I do actually feel bad for putting Jenn this low and she might be mad as fuck at me for it post-season but I know her name is floating around right now and she could be in danger. I think Joey likes her a lot though and with Joey as the swing vote/power player that could be very goo for her.
#9. Tony (-1): Tony just hasn't really showed up much and I think that if I had to bet on it, he'd be the one to go here. I think the actual CBS show would edit it like there was big potential for a Jacob blindside at tribal council but I think Joey wants a Tony boot here to keep the peace and like I've said, Joey is obviously the person ~in charge~ here.